And thereby hangs a tale

Barrick (GOLD) gold sales and Queen Gertrude

On reading the Barrick Gold (GOLD) 1q22 production and preliminary sales NR and noting how many times it repeats the same message…

“…On Track…” (title)
“As previously guided…” (para 1)
“We remain on track…” (para 1)
“As expected…” (para 3)
“…as planned.” (para 4)
“As previously guided…” (para 4)

…and then comes in with these hard numbers…

…it sure made me think of Queen Gertrude:

  • Hamlet: Madam, how like you this play?
  • Gertrude: The lady doth protest too much, methinks.


    Inflation will hit all miners who use diesel fuel in a big way. IMO, Barrick is one of the safest bets in the secor with its new dividend policy, its net debt at zero, and a guy like Bristow running the ship. I met the guy once, and he is one smart cookie. Held Rangold for over 15 years.


      No problem with your call, except that I think it’s already baked into the price. GOLD has out-performed the sector handily in 2022 YTD and when you’re this size company, beating GDX in a leveraged market is no mean feat. Thing is, most GOLD holders these days are generalist instos and not au fait with the ways of mining, they’ll look at the 1q22 numbers and make decisions without reading the report literature.


    You are correct. Generalists love GOLD and NEM. What are your thoughts on AEM as it has underperformed the GDX YTD? It seems some KL shareholders may still be selling, but that has to end soon. Assets look good, but of course cost inflation will be huge especially in Northern Canada. I may switch a bit of GOLD into AEM soon.


      I’ve now been staring at your question for 5 minutes, thinking about the pros and cons of AEM into this earnings. Honestly, all i have is “dunno” as there are too many things I don’t understand about the company and its new shape. In theory it’s exposed to higher costs on several fronts and i simply do not like the way Makuch was jettisoned. OTOH, Detour Lake is working now and Fosterville being Fosterville all it takes is a few weeks of high grade throughput and the whole company could get a free pass. Maybe my best answer would be to say to AEM holders to hold thru, but those on the outside could find better places for their cash. Under your context and noting how GDXJ is showing signs of catching up to GDX, I’d be more interested in Tier2 stocks.


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