Want to know how badly Chile’s Constitutional reform is going? Here’s part of the note “More on Chile’s Constitutional referendum vote” from IKN687, out last night. The poll we reference is here (direct PDF download).
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The September 4th referendum vote on whether to accept or reject Chile’s new draft constitution is quickly shaping up to be the key moment in the country’s political year and on Friday, President Gabriel Boric of Chile couldn’t have said “The Referendum Is In Trouble” better if he’d quoted the latest opinion polls. Here’s Reuters (15):
SANTIAGO, July 15 (Reuters) – Chilean President Gabriel Boric said on Friday that if a proposed new constitution is rejected in a referendum set for September, a new draft would have to be written up from scratch instead of modifying the current text.
In an interview with a local television channel, the leftist president said that since Chile’s citizens voted to draft a new constitution in 2020, the process would have to be carried out again if the current proposal.
“If the plan is rejected, what will happen is that we will have to prolong the process for another year and a half, where everything will have to be discussed from the beginning,” said Boric, who has avoided speaking of alternatives if voters reject the proposed text in September.
It doesn’t take a Doctorate in Political Science to recognize a politician in full back-pedal mode and the latest reliable poll earlier in the week underscores what even Boric acknowledges these days. Here’s the link (16) to the full poll from Activa/Pulso Ciudadano (1,205 persons surveyed, MoE +/-2.8%) and here’s one slide of many:
FWIW, the full poll shows plenty more on the growing dissatisfaction with the direction Chile is taking and the growing unpopularity of its new President (and his government), but this example gives us the evolution of voter intention for September 4th and while the red/blue line divergence is obvious enough, in this poll the devil is in the details. Not only has the “Reject the New Constitution” vote (red) climbed to 46.3%, versus 28% for those who intend to vote to accept (blue), but the number of undecided voters (grey) has dropped sharply. We have a new 7.2% who say they will not vote on the day (even though this referendum is compulsory) and 2.9% who say they will spoil their ballot. We mentioned last weekend that the more Chileans study the draft the less they like it, this poll has quantified that clearly.
Not sure aboit the backpedalling, though he is admittting it probably wont work this time.
He sounds more like European politicians telling the populace that they’ll be voting on the project till they vote properly, and if they insist on refusing it, it’ll be slipped in sideways anyway.