In The IKN Weekly this weekend, why Central America is bad news in the second half of 2021 and how even the risk-tolerant should think twice before exposing to Guatemala and Nicaragua in particular. But it’s not all bad, because political risk is improving rapidly in the Southern Cone; Peru is a buy for what is about to happen, Chile’s a buy because nothing will happen, even Argentina is getting friendlier for the mining industry. That’s wraps up the preview to this weekend’s edition, but non-readers of The IKN Weekly shouldn’t worry and aren’t missing out on anything. Nothing special or different goes on so don’t bother signing up, it’s only knowledge of Spanish, ability with numbers, regional political insight, 20-odd years watching mining companies operate in South America and the general habit of publishing between 25 and 30 pages every weekend for the last 12 of those. Piece of cake, beats me what the fuss is about.
UPDATE: regular mailpal asked about this post and specifically about the Peru angle, in light of the chaos brought on by his picks for ministers (especially his PM). Here’s my reply:
Peru will now officially moderate, but it may be rough. Two avenues:
1) Castillo did this deliberately to create political space in Lima. He can then appoint a more moderate cabinet without the Communist backers being able to complain.
2) Congress throws him out, new elections. That is now a reasonable chance, obvs a rough passage but by end 2021, all is calmer.
We do the rest in IKN636.