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12 / 23 / 14

Reality bites: Results of the IKN “Ten random predictions for 2014”

On December 22nd 2013 we ran our regular “Ten Random Predictions” post for 2014, which you can check out here. Today with scant days left in the year the results are yours. Here come the original calls, the result and the completely subjective and biased score for the year (1, 0.5 or fat zero per call), all by me.
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1) Gold, at ~$1,200/oz today, is close to its bottom. 

Score: 0.5. That’s because the headline call was right, my “let’s say $100/oz lower is possible” was also good, but in the text I also said the upside could be to U$1,500/oz and that was wrong. So, half right result.

2) Quality junior mining companies and explorecos will finally split away from the cruddy juniors and we’ll see an all-important gap develop between the companies that need to die and those that will survive and eventually thrive. 

Score: 0.5. That’s because the basic call was good but the whole sector dropped, good ones and bad ones, instead of the envisaged up/down split. The good ones did less worse than the cruddy ones, rather than better.

3) Copper will be weak in 2014, with supply outstripping demand and new lows of under $3/lb registered (put me down for $2.80/lb on multiple days, not just a single spike). Average for the year to be around $3.10/lb 

Score: 1 point. Yup, that one was a good call all round. 

4) Uranium won’t break $40/lb at any point and the sector will continue to get the rah-rah from the promo people still holding their large bags. 

Score: 0 points. Darn, close but no cigar on this one because if there hadn’t been that BS pump jump on U in October/November, which peaked the metal at just over U$40/lb before it dropped back, it would have been spot on. But a clear number call is a clear number call, no disputing the facts, a fail is a fail. 

5) Dilma Rousseff, President of Brazil, will be re-elected in 2014. 

Score: 1 point. Closer than I thought it’d be, but it’s a win. 

6) Evo Morales, President of Bolivia, will be re-elected in 2014. 

Score: 1 point. To be fair, this was a bit of a no-brainer call and about the easiest prediction anyone could have made on Latin American politics in 2014. But I’ll take it. 

7) Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia, will be re-elected in 2014.

Score: 1 point. As with the Dilma vote, it was closer than I’d expected for a while and Juanma got taken to a second round run-off by the right wing hatergottahate Zuluaga/Uribe brigade, but Colombia made the right choice in the end. 

8) Both Argentina and Venezuela will continue to defy and confound the non-stop barrage of criticism from the western media and get through 2014 just fine. 

 Score: 1 point. Yes that one’s turned out correct. We can debate Venezuela if you want, but the way it’s painted from the outside (dictatorial regime about to be toppled any moment) is a far cry from the reality inside the country because you can love em or hate em, but the PSUV party has a tight grip on power and runs the show still. As for Argentina, yeah for sure it’s a nuthouse but it’s doing just fine under all the blahblah. Sorry haters, I win you lose.




9) Juan Martin Del Potro will win at least one of the Grand Slam tournaments this year. 

Score: 0 points. Turns out my wishes for Delpo were misplaced, his wrist injury has haunted him all season and we’ve hardly seen the dude play. Oh well, next year.




10) And finally, the big one: Brazil will win the 2014 World Cup. 

Score 0 points. This is the one that I’m happy to have called badly.
GRAND TOTAL: SIX OUT OF TEN. A tad better than my 5.5/10 in the 2013 prediction game and we can safely say that my political calls were better than the sporting ones. At some point next week I’ll set out the 2015 predictions for the LatAm/biz/political world that is IKN. Toodle pip!

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