IKN

Every why hath a wherefore

From IKN348, January 10th 2016

Anyone who thinks
Peronism has just been dealt a mortal blow via the election of Mauricio Macri

and believes that Argentina is about to change its course of history in some
immediate and definitive manner in order to join the club of “acceptable
developing nations” (or whatever else you’d like to label them) is in for a rude awakening.

From IKN345, April 4th 2016

From IKN373, June 26th 2016

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People, I’ve said it before and
I’ll say it again, be careful of false dawns in Argentina. You cannot
change the fortunes of a deeply FUBAR country just by changing its government
and trying to lead it in a new direction for a year or two and I’ve watched
nervously as mining companies, Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) at the forefront
with a very risky move into the country via its purchase of Goldrock (GRM.v),
have rushed in where angels fear to tread. I’ll repeat, until we have clear
indications that Argentina’s macro numbers are improving, it’s way too risky a
place to get overexposed. If things do improve there will be time enough to
take positions and feel the benefit, but the hype has been too much too soon
and stock valuations don’t reflect the continued high level of political risk.

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IKN386, October 2016

Overall, Argentina gets one plus
point for the macro and one negative point for the mining scene this quarter,
but it’s still a story that’s being way overhyped in the North and the large-scale
risks involved in jumping in too early are being ignored by most commentators
(and the board of directors of Fortuna Silver).

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IKN463, April 2018

It’s
difficult to get very comfortable with Argentina as a nation of mining and the
positive image that Macri has in the Northern press contrasts to the way in
which the macroeconomic growth is falling well behind his government’s rosy
promises and projections (GDP lagging, inflation remains high and even showing
signs of accelerating now, the Peso is the weakest currency on the continent
etc).

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