My idea of a great contrary indicator voice is:
- Preferably, somebody who talks constantly about your preferred sector of the market
- Normally, somebody who’s been around the market for long enough to sound expert.
- Importantly, somebody who thinks highly of their own opinion.
- Usefully, somebody who is easily swayed by other people’s points of view.
- Unfortunately, somebody with views and a voice that annoys you deeply on a natural, instinctive level and you need to concentrate just to listen to them and resist the urge to tell them to STFU on umpteen occasions.
- But most vital of all, somebody who, when it comes right down to it, truly does not have a single clue about the markets.
The people who tick off that type of list are few and far between so if you find someone who matches consider yourself lucky, you’ve hit on something very precious. However, be clear that one thing you must never do is tell your contrary indicator. Or in fact it’s best not to tell anyone else, because eventually the message might get back to your jewel of a voice and then the game’s up. The golden rule is: Never let your contrary indicator know how stupid they are. Ever. The one thing you don’t want is for them to get smarter.
IKN dedicates this post to A. Person, who has been of great help in timing the markets recently. Thanks, A. Person, you’re a star. Never change.
UPDATE: Reader ‘SP’ reads this post and kindly sends in this link to an XKCD:
Good shot, SP.