IKN

a plague o both your houses

An exchange on Trilogy (TMQ)

After airing a couple of views about Trilogy Metals (TMQ) in the weakly yesterday (TL:DR: I’m long, in the green and grumbling a bit about its under-performance) one subscriber and regular mail foil who will remain anonymous sent over a response and, a couple of back’n’forths later, I asked him whether I could re-publish the exchange on the blerg. He said yes, read below and please excuse my unsavoury expression, but when speaking with people such as my friend financialese makes things easier and I don’t self-censor afterward.

My friend: “I guess one could argue that with mine developers like Trilogy TMQ, they are not really making any money off this copper rally with no product yet to sell, while BHP and the other producers obviously are. So TMQ’s copper in the ground, while on paper more valuable, may not get out at anywhere near these prices so has to be heavily discounted. Maybe that discount is too large, I don’t know, but I bought back around 2.80ish (yet again). I am of course kicking myself for having sold BHP over 20% ago, thinking copper/iron ore would not go this high!”

Me: “Some stories are easy to overthink. TMQ is S32’s bitch, but S32 is a good master. The takeout will come and at a price that reflects plenty of the value of the known metal, leaving S32 the exploration upside and the place where they school generations of geols out of university. The offer comes in 6 days/weeks/months, but definitely not 6 years. By that time, TMQ would have batted away too many suitors to ignore them. S32 has 18 months, tops. And I wait.”

My friend: “Thanks, yeah me too. When I was younger I might have gotten impatient on a trade like this. Now I know to wait, the payday comes out of the blue eventually.”

He’s right. And by the way, I made the same early sale mistake with Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) as my friend in BHP, we both got off over 20% ago. Same reason, too, the only difference being the size of the paddling pool he plays in is somewhat larger than this humble corner of cyberspace’s. 😉

5 Comments

    The slumber of reason breeds monsters, and like Saturn I believe in your theme.
    However, I think Newcrest will get hungry for Imperial before South32 moves on Trilogy
    But both are excellent investment theses to generate juicy alpha

    Reply

    Interesting exchange . Thanks for sharing . If you trade one usually misses the first and last percentage of a move. What falls in between to yourself is all that matters .

    Reply

    Thanks for sharing. It does look as though TMQ is finally waking up. I left some on the table when I sold CMMC early but this might just make up for it 🙂

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Hello, you are not in a chatroom, you are in my living room. Opposing views and criticisms welcome, insults or urinating on furniture unwelcome. Please refrain from swearing if possible, it is not needed.