- Domestic demand down from 7.1% to 5% growth
- The projected fiscal surplus of 1.1% is now a fiscal deficit of 1.0%
- Export growth down from 6.2% to 1.9%
- Import growth down from 9% to 2.1%
- Inflation down from last year’s posted 6.65% to a forecast of 2% in 2009
- The GDP growth forecast is unchanged, staying at 5%
Can you seriously tell me that Peru is going to beat its 2008 export total this year? Even Carranza’s Finance Ministry recognizes that exports will drop from around $32.47Bn to around $28Bn this year (which is also exaggerated imho, it’s more likely around $25Bn), so I’d be interested in finding out what BCRP top cheese Julio Velarde was smoking when he came up with a 1.9% YoY export growth prognostication. To labour the point, Peru is staring a 15% to 20% drop in exports in the face, not 1.9% growth.
It’s the same story with imports, of course. Growth in 2009? Oh c’mon guys, at least make your bullshit survive more than a cursory glance at reality.
It does make me wonder what Velarde is trying to achieve here. I actually basically respect the guy and know full well he’s not a klutz. Perhaps by making such outrageous claims he’s trying to send a signal to people that look further than the headlines in El Comercio. Perhaps he’s trying to say “Twobreakfasts is making me manipulate the GDP number, so I may as well make them look as silly as possible”. I’m just trying to find a thread of logic where there is none.