Take physic, pomp

Argentina: Another Canadian brokerage crashes and burns on bad political risk call

I really don’t know what it is about the Canadian brokerages and their über-sad track record of calling LatAm politics. Perhaps they just assume the situation they want to see and then visualize it so much that it becomes their own form of reality. But whatever it is, they are so pisspoor on calling politics in LatAm. Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela and all the rest, they just see what they want to see and put the cash of their clients in great danger as a result.

The latest LatAm PolRisk EpicFail comes from Alexandre Garcia of Raymond James, who early this week made a bullish call on Argentina’s media company Grupo Clarin. Here’s how Bloomie reported his call on October 5th:

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) — Grupo Clarin SA, Argentina’s biggest media company, may soar as much as 50 percent as President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s bid to tighten control over local broadcasters meets congressional opposition, according to Raymond James analyst Alexandre Garcia. CONTINUES HERE
The result of the vote was last night. The law passed 44 votes to 24, the opposition to the bill fell away and no changes were made whatsoever. Here’s Bloomie again:
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) — Argentina’s Senate approved a government-backed bill that puts new limits on television and radio ownership and will probably force Grupo Clarin SA, the country’s biggest media company, to sell off assets. CONTINUES HERE
Still think Clarín is good for a 50% pop, Alex?

Making predictions like the one Alexandre Garcia made and advising clients into stocks on the basis of “understanding what happens in Argentine politics” is the very worst sort of irresponsible. A thousand analysts have crashed and burned before this dude by trying to second-guess the murky world of Congressional politics and a thousand more will crash and burn going forward.

So therefore, Alexandre Garcia of Raymond James, you win this week’s coveted award. Hopefully you’ll learn from your basic, greenhorn mistake and not put the cash of your clients at risk like this again. But for the time being…

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