IKN

An early morning mail arrives from reader FE in Europe, asking for any developments in the Argentina presidential election race. Well, apart from Scioli’s big 10,000 peso-a-plate fundraiser last night that pulled in 35 million Pesos (you can argue the exchange rate on that with somebody else, but if we assume the official 9.13 pesos to the dollar it’s U$3.8m and not bad for one evening) and a few minor skirmishes of dirty politics from either side it’s really moving forward fairly calmly so far, which is largely due to the fact that Daniel Scioli is out in front and unlikely to be caught by his only serious rival, Mauricio Macri. There’s the Buenos Aires city mayor run-off this weekend which will be won by Macri’s man Larreta (owner of the scariest smile in politics, like one of those psychotic horror movie clowns just without the greasepaint) but that’s always been a given and won’t affect the national gig at all. So there’s about three months left and the real campaign trail stuff is about to start. Expect “incidents” because there always are, but CFK will get her continuation as well.

Last weekend we updated on the state of play in the Argentina presidential election campaign. Here’s how that piece ended, because it sums things up well this weekend too (and copying my own work allows me to avoid thinking, which is good).

The last couple of weeks have seen
a rise in the number of serious and level-headed commentary people in Argentina
who either predict a Scioli win in round one or if not, that he’s getting close
to that level. I don’t think Scioli will quite have enough and again, a lot
will depend on how the deserters from the Sergio Massa campaign decide to cast
for Scioli or Macri. But his grasp on the top job is looking firmer by the week
and few in Argentina
or looking on the campaigns doubt that Scioli is now red hot favourite.