IKN

Win us with honest trifles

Argonaut Gold (AR.to): At least we know why…

…this three-month chart looks the way it does:

Here’s why:

The Company announces that Pete Dougherty has ceased to be the President and Chief Executive Officer of Argonaut Gold effective immediately. The Board of Directors has commenced a search to replace these roles and is working in real time to put interim leadership in place. The Board of Directors believes the existing executive team, with the support and guidance of the Board, is well suited to continue to run the business while a lasting leadership decision is being made.

And this is why that, from the same NR:

After a review of the impacts of cost increases, inflation, COVID-19, adjustments to the development plans and contingencies, the updated Magino EAC is approximately $800 million. It is forecasted that through December 31, 2021, approximately $342 million will have been invested into the Project, leaving approximately $459 million remaining to be invested to complete the Project. 

Continues here. And yes, I’m long and this news sucks, particularly as I sat through an hour of Pete Dougherty webinar one week ago in which zero zip nada mention of this massive capex bump was made. Bye-bye Pete and let’s also remember how obsequious the VID V conference organizers were towards him…pay-to-play propagandists shown for what they are, instant karma gonna getcha. So, one of my investments may take a bath today but, this news could put AR in-play. The 10am EST ConfCall will be interesting for sure, I’ll be there.

11 Comments

    Why is it always the tailings facility they under-estimate? Same thing did for Rainy River.

    If you ask me its psychological; Mining people love getting the rock out and love getting it processed, but then want to forget about the mess they make.

    Reply

      and they forget that outside Canada many places have local people that use the land for local stuff.

      Always good the piss them off just so you can knock the project back a couple of years (if you are lucky) and add a nice chunk to the CAPEX.

      Shareholders love that!

      Reply

    eat crow dude and swallow it down with a pisco sour

    Reply

      I’ll serve my portion with a coffee, but yeah. ConfCall just started, on it now.

      Reply

        FWIW, this is a reply to a mail this morning. Let’s put it here as well (though on reflection, +20% opex may be too steep and +10% opex closer)

        xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

        I was on the call. The bottom line, AR is now a “show me” story. They need to cover C$190m with extra financing, the Chair is confident of getting the money and says they have several options, but i can’t see how they raise without knowing the name of the new CEO. They say they are moving quickly on both fronts, but what is “quickly”? Also, there are implied opex hikes I’m adding 20% to the AISC model. The basic math is $1Bn market cap last night + C$190m shortfall = 20% equity drop. Then more loss for the bad disclosure and loss of trust, so the market reaction was sadly predictable. There’s nothing here that doesn’t suck, it reminds me too much of Rainy River and to add insult, the December timing is awful. I haven’t decided what to do with my shares yet.

        Sucks, sucks, sucks.

        Reply

    Timing of the announcement leaves very little room for tax loss selling. The price might take a further dive in the rest of 2021.

    Reply

      Aye. It sucks even harder to discover the reason for recent PPS weakness in mid-December. I’m still looking forward to my yummy portion of crow on Sunday, my trades are my trades, but that live webinar I watched eight days ago is seriously sticking in my craw. Butter couldn’t have melted in Dougherty’s mouth, and as for cheerleading from the paid-to-pay…ugh. It’s not as if they suddenly noticed the bedrock conditions last week, or the small matter of having to build 11 water dams. Their decision to switch from grid power to LPG sucks as well. Everything sucks today.

      Reply

    What do with those shares ? Maybe sell half now . Then ? Put those funds back in when she seems to have bottomed ..Bottom line is the deposit will determine the outcome …

    Reply

    I think this will hit and stay around C$2 for a few months. Just the CEO search itself will be 2-3 months if they are lucky.

    Reply

    […] a month since Argonaut Gold (AR.to) dropped its bad news about Magino on the world and as witnessed in this post on the day, plus this more detailed post to follow-up a couple of days later, your humble scribe […]

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Hello, you are not in a chatroom, you are in my living room. Opposing views and criticisms welcome, insults or urinating on furniture unwelcome. Please refrain from swearing if possible, it is not needed.