children of an idle brain

Baked in jerbs and Fed and gold and things

To repeat the “gold’s not going to $1k” message of November 15th in IKN340:

Let us be

  • The reason why gold’s been
    weak is that the dollar’s been strong
  • The dollar got strong because
    of the US Jobs number
  • The US macro improvement
    indicates that Janet will raise the base rate in December
  • That move needed to be baked
    into gold.
  • It’s now baked in.
  • And that’s all.

It may come as a surprise to people who wax lyrical about markets and financials without bothering to read up on the last 5,000 years of human history, but gold’s going to be just fine. It’s the near-term moves that get heads scratching, not the longer-term ones.

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