Win us with honest trifles

Calling bullshit on the gold experts at Kitco

The Emperors with no clothes in question are long past being called out on their random stupidity. Here’s the latest from our Kitco Gold Survey monitor and it shows, just like it did at the end of 2013, that the people who Kitco call experts and ask their opinion on the direction of the gold market… 
What you see in the chart below is a tracker of the last 31 weeks of the gold survey results and predictions. It works in the following way:

1) On the left, the date of each survey
2) Next the number of participants surveyed (part)
3) Next the number of responses received
4) And then, how many of those responses were bullish, bearish or neutral according to Kitco.
5) We then have those numbers crunched into percentages, with a highlight for the dominant call of that week
6) Then comes the acid test. You see the price of the gold bullion ETF (GLD) on the date of the survey. That’s then compared with the close of the following week and the “result %” (also colour coded) shows which way gold went during the week (nb: if it moved less than 0.5% in either direction, it’s called neutral). 

Finally, we have the “survey accurate?” column, which gives us the verdict on the experts scores. Also note here that many of the results are coloured in yellow; that’s when the collective prediction was a strong one and had at least 50% of participants in agreement on one of the three options:

And the results:

  • Over the last 31 weeks, the survey has been accurate on the price of gold just 13 times.
  • On the 21 “strong signal” (i.e 50% or more) weeks, the survey has been accurate on the price of gold just 8 times.
Or put another way, this is monkey with dartboard predictive accuracy. Or it’s “my seven year old daughter could make a living at this” accuracy. Or put yet another way, here’s a heartfelt message to the self-styled experts of Kitco’s gold survey:

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