IKN

More matter with less art

Chart of the day is…

….crude oil futures, weekly candle.

Inflation or deflation? That’s the big macro question that needs its answer in 2010 (and squillions will be won and lost on getting it right, too). Following oil gives us a commodity slant on the question and, for what it looks like at leasdt, crude can’t seem to make up its mind, either. But what we do have is a U$70/bbl level that’s become a strong support (caveat: it’s broken under $70 on a couple of days here and there…we’re taking a weekly view remember).

So is the trade “follow the channel“? Could be true and if it is, we’re set for a happy few weeks now as inflation expectations come from good biz numbers and oil goes higher and China says more pretty things and we all love a bull run don’t we? But me personally, I’m not buying it. I see weakness all around and the chance of reversals in all sorts of things (not just oil) is high. It’s time to be defensive methinks. Be careful out there and DYODD.

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