IKN

drowsy syrups of the world

Chávez wins

With 90% of ballots counted, Chávez has 54.42% of the valid vote, Capriles: 44.97%. The end.

And now allow me to re-post IKN’s final thought on the Venezuela bunfest, dated September 21st 2012. the bit highlighted in red is highlighted in red.


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We’re now two weeks and a bit from
the October 7th vote that will decide whether Hugo Chávez Frías keeps
his job or whether Henrique Capriles Radonski gets a new job. As the
media bullshit chatter is already ratcheting up and is going to get a
lot worse in the days left, IKN is therefore going to keep away from all
the false polemics and
liberty/tyranny/democracy/dictatorship/freedom/fair/fraud tosh and
nonsense that your media channels of choice are bound to subject you to
and make this post today our final comment on the subject until October
8th minimum. So for the record…
  • I think Chávez is favourite and if you wanted a book number from me,
    I’d go for something around 75% chance. Purely seat-of-pants subjective
    stuff. Put another gun to my head and I’d go for Chávez securing 55% of
    valid votes come the big day. Again, guesstimate.
  • However, this means that Capriles has about 24% more chance than any
    other candidate running against Chávez in recent years and his campaign
    shouldn’t be written off. Henrique Capriles has run a good campaign, a
    smart campaign and has played to his strengths more than trying to
    attack Chávez on any given occasion. That type of slugfest would have
    favoured Chávez much more, so Capriles’ strategic decision to keep away
    from the insult-swapping type of campaign has been a good one.  Bottom
    line: I’d consider it a surprise if he wins, but not a stunning
    surprise.
  • But one 100% dead cert is that media coverage and anal yst comment
    is going to be all-but insufferable. World-and-his-spouse all suddenly
    experts on the intricacies of Venezuelan politics? Why of course!
  • The final confident prediction is that on October 8th, the losers
    will be calling fraud. That, my fine feathered friends, is a given.
So, until October 8th and if you really have the right type of masochistic streak that insists you keep up with the BS show, Two Weeks Notice is as good a filter as any, I think.  

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