IKN

saucy doubts and fears

Chile’s economic activity drops like a stone

Oh lordy! Here’s the short’n’sweet Bloomie note that just about sums it up:

June 5 (Bloomberg) — Chilean economic activity shrank 4.6 percent in April from a year earlier, the central bank said today on its Web site.

The median estimate of 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey was that economic activity contracted by 3.5 percent in April, the sixth consecutive decline.

Seasonally adjusted activity declined 0.7 percent from March, the bank said.

The Chilean number reported today is the IMACEC figure, a reliable proxy to GDP. It also means that Chile’s economy is now in recession to the tune of -1.3% (the annual figure).

When we look at how Chile’s monthly IMACEC number compares to Peru’s monthly reported GDP…..


……we see that the two are very closely related, unsurprising for two economies have have much in common. Which means that if Peru is honest with the world when it reports its number (usually on or around the 15th of the month) it will turn in a negative result of -0.7% (give or take) for April 2009. The only question left is whether the INEI has the balls to tell the truth….recent evidence casts doubt.

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