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Colombia: La Gran Encuesta puts Petro in front (from IKN678)

This from the Regional Politics section of IKN678, out Sunday evening. This week marks the last week of campaigning and there’s just two weeks between us and the first round vote, on May 29th.

Colombia: La Gran Encuesta puts Petro in front

Sponsored by a suite of established media channels and run by one of the biggest pollsters in the country under best-practice conditions (face-to-face with the pollster, using vote simulation papers, flashcards and neutral language) the most respected opinion poll in any Colombia electoral season is “La Gran Encuesta” and last week, the fourth edition of its 2022 Presidential race was published. See the whole thing here (10) (it runs to over 50 pages of PDF) but we get straight to the point with the two slides that matter most:

The May 2022 results (yellow columns, right) see Gustavo Petro stretching his lead and Federico ‘Fico’ Gutiérrez consolidating his second place position. With third placed Rodolfo Hernández failing to make progress and fewer undecided+”vote in white”, it would be a major shock not to see the two frontrunners face off in the second round. In fact, the only other realistic alternative would be to see Petro get 50%+1 valid votes and win outright in round one.

So with Colombia set for a showdown between Fico and Petro, here’s the other slide from La Gran Encuesta that matters, that of the second round between those candidates:

This is bad news for the right wing, the current government, for some FDI and certainly for the mining industry in Colombia. There’s now a 13 point gap between the clearly left wing Gustavo Petro and the right wing’s chosen candidate, Fico Gutiérrez. The inevitable move toward the centre by both candidates during this campaign season has so far favoured Petro and among the sub-categories of the poll, this slide points to the reasons why:

This question has been part of the survey for the last three editions and says, “Do you believe that Colombia is at risk of ending up the same as Venezuela, in political, social and economic terms?” As you can see, 60% answered “Yes” and 37% say “No”, ostensibly bad news for a Left wing candidate such as Petro. However, the small print matters as in January, 69% answered yes and in March, 66% answered yes. The number of Colombians fearful of their country going the way of its disastrous neighbour is still high, but it’s dropped by 9% during the campaign season and that means the “natural ceiling” of Petro votes has moved higher.

Bottom line: Your mining investment money should avoid Colombia, as from now. Two of those words are underlined and bold-typed, that’s for a good reason.

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