“La Gran Encuesta” (the big survey) is generally accepted as Colombia’s most reliable opinion poll. This evening, we got its first take on the Presidential race since last week’s Senate election and quasi-primaries for the main players, in which Gustavo Petro (left wing coalition), Federico ‘Fico’ Gutiérrez (right wing coalition) and Sergio Fajardo (centre coalition) all won through. Here’s the need to know:
- Lefty Petro is on 37%
- Righty Fico is on 19%
- Spoiled ballots/Non-Votes get 16%
- Independent Rodolfo Hernández is on 11%
- Centrist Sergio Fajardo is on 10%
- Then come the also-rans
The full survey is here (scroll through, there’s plenty to chew over) and FWIW, these results are generally in-line with another reasonably reliable pollster’s results as seen last week. As leader Petro is a distance from getting 50%+1 vote and winning in the first round (May 29th), it looks as though we’re heading for Fico vs Petro in the run-off and for that, La Gran Encuesta puts Petro on 42%, Fico on 35%.