IKN

To quit this horrid act

Copper: Is sanity prevailing?

If you want to get anything done in this country
you have to complain til you’re blue in the face
Monty Python, Dead Parrot Sketch (1969)
Yes, I’m still bearish copper. Why? Because there’s no demand for the stuff. I’m one of those boring, fundy-based people, remember. And as I hark back Adam Smith and his weird, out-of fashion concepts of supply and demand and then look around at the numbers the world throws at me I can’t help but conclude that because THERE’S NO DEMAND FOR THE STUFF among end users of copper right now, the price of copper eventually has to drop some.

For sure there are other factors; the Keynesian stimuli and stockpiling in China has to affect copper to the upside…and it has been affecting it, of course. The only question left is whether China takes those 78 squillion dollars in reserves it has and keeps buying all the copper in the world at $2+, because as there’s currently NO DEMAND FOR THE STUFF among end users it really has the playground to itself.

Most likely it doesn’t. China is populated by smart people, and smart people know that when they are the only buyers they can dictate the price. So I reckon China will happily watch copper slump a bit before going back to market and adding to that large mountain of surplus-to-demand metal it’s creating.

That’s the general ballpark plan Chez Otto, at least. So excuse me as I continue to rant and rave against the illogic of the market (a place that can ignore me forever if it likes…it’s my windmill and I’ll tilt at it all I want, thank you very much) and repeat my call for a $1.70/lb Cu forward target. Cos there’s no demand for the stuff right now, y’see.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Hello, you are not in a chatroom, you are in my living room. Opposing views and criticisms welcome, insults or urinating on furniture unwelcome. Please refrain from swearing if possible, it is not needed.