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saucy doubts and fears

Dilma’s impeachment process: The need-to-know (from IKN364)

Another small segment from last weekend’s letter, featured here because the mention in the final paragraph about the possibility that Dilma dissolve government and calls snap elections has been gaining traction in the last couple of days after O Globo reported on Monday that Dilma was seriously considering the option. 
Anyway, that’s today’s gossip. Here’s how we ran things last Sunday in IKN364
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Brazil and the Dilma impeachment process: What happens now

Although
not directly related to mining and in my considered opinion not a major factor
in country risk for our sector of focus (see the latest Regional Risk Review in
IKN360 dated April 3rd for more) I’ve been getting a smattering of
mails asking what’s happening in the media-grabbing Dilma Rousseff impeachment
process, what with things suddenly quiet. So here’s the need-to-know:

1)      Brazil’s
lower house of parliament voted for the impeachment process last month, it’s
now up to the upper house Senate to approve the process.

2)      That
debate and vote is set for May 11th.

3)      There
are 81 senators, the vote to move forward on the process needs a simple majority
and as political watchers in Brazil concur that there are at least 50 senate
members who will vote for the impeachment process, things look bad for Dilma.

4)      Assuming
the vote goes against her, Dilma will be immediately suspended from her duties
and her Vice-President Michel Temer takes interim office.

5)      The
Dilma suspension will be for 180 days. During that time the Senate must vote
again after the investigation is complete on whether Dilma is guilty as
charged. That vote needs a 2/3rds majority to carry (not a simple majority).

6)      If
that vote goes against her Dilma loses her job and Temer becomes the official
President of Brazil until the end of the current government’s mandate, December
2018.

So now you
know. There are some variations possible on that basic scenario, such as the
potential of a dissolving of government and snap elections being called, but
what you see above is now generally regarded as the most likely process and the
path of least resistance. No word on who gets to make the opening speeches at
the Rio Olympics and sit in the VVIP box at the track and field events, the
official Prez or the interim one.

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