IKN

Win us with honest trifles

(UPDATED) GBR/KGC/GOLD: If I were Bristow, here’s what I’d do

  1. If I were Bristow, I’d offer $30 cash and shares for GBR and not hang around in doing so. He hasn’t been caught napping yet, the game is merely afoot. But if he waits he’s going to look behind the curve and after failing to win Kirkland Lake, the optics would be poor.
  2. I’d then wait for Kinross to come over Barrick with its counter (and hey, there’s plenty of room because we all know GBR won’t sell for C$29 of K paper).
  3. As Special K can only bring paper to any contest, its share price then comes under pressure.
  4. Then if I were Bristow, I’d make the real move and buy out Kinross, save my $85m break fee and then flip out Paracatu to Equinox, discounting my ticket price with hard cash and improving GOLD’s balance sheet. Thornton would love me just for that.
  5. And I’d also stop my disgusting addiction for big game hunting. Ugh, what a wretch of a man.

UPDATE: The GBR minute interval daily chart with an interesting end to the trading day:

That ramp was mainly house one too, the arbitrageurs suddenly and rudely shoved off the ask. FWIW, I don’t have many GBR and after a few mail exchanges, have decided not to get ideas above my station, remain the retail grunt I most certainly am and not press the position or lay any side bets. But as sure as eggs are eggs, this is going to be a fun spectator event in the days and weeks to come. Not selling any yet, so bring on the show.

17 Comments

    Face it, Marky Mark: You can have all the money in the world and that private jet to zip you around it, but if Marcelo Kim thinks you’re cool you’re a dumbass. Period. Get used to the fact.

    Reply

    Is Kinross a decent buy on this dip? Sorry. I had to at least ask.

    Reply
    Nikko Montreal Ouest 09/12/21 9:34 am

    LOL. Im glad you are not him. Before you spew uch nonsence look at Kinross assets particularly Kupol whos life is coming to an end.
    Bristow wont bid for GBR IMO.

    Reply

      He’s made has made it clear Barrick wants (back?) into Canada, so if you can come up with a different asset that moves the needle sufficiently, I’m all ears. Next, Barrick just spent plenty of time and effort securing land around Dixie so unless the company has turned into concession flippers that was for a reason. Next, Barrick was exclusive on KL but walked on a price that AEM happily paid, now Makuch is breathing down his neck for the #2 mkt cap position when GOLD wants to be #1. And nobody’s claiming Special Ks assets are a perfect match, but that’s how large scale M&A works.

      If Barrick doesn’t move on this, what else is there in cold North America? Suddenly get competitive for Pretium? Buy NovaGold or Seabridge or Sabina? None of those match the “tier 1 asset” profile required, but Dixie does it in spades. And I look around and see little alternative, other than get aggressive on Osisko which would cost even more per oz than this. The alternative would be to eat words and stay in Africa, which would at least make business sense but the company corporate profile becomes significantly inferior to that of NEM (and again, that of AEM) as every year passes.

      And learn some respect before “spewing nonsense” in my front room next time. You get this reply and one last chance. You’re a serially boring, repetitive and arrogant troll commenter who thinks they know it all and has spew and nonsense for way too many posts on this blog so if you can’t be bothered to reply properly this last time, don’t even bother cos I’ll spam you out from now until forever. It’s long past time you grew up and quit the whining teen act, you are one boring person to read and i’ve had the displeasure far too often. This is not Twitter.

      Reply

        How do we know what the cost per ounce is when GBR couldn’t get out a resource estimate within four years of the discovery hole?!

        $2.0 – $2.5 B to buy GBR, add another $1B +++ to build it – that’s a long time for Barrick to get their money back if they come over-the-top – We’ll see.

        Reply

          For one example of many, Goldcorp (ahhh, remember them?) bot Cerro Negro in Argentina for a headline $2k/oz, the justification was that there were more ounces to add. It’s a moot point if Dixie had an MRE or not, frankly.

          Reply

        OSK was being bid up today (as much as 6%+) on a pretty dreary day for explorcos. I’m not saying it’s a fit for Barrick, but some investors (perhaps misguidedly) obviously think that the GBR buyout makes it more likely that OSK suffers a similar fate sooner rather than later…

        Reply

        Just an honest question, why not NG
        GOLD have 50% of the project already.
        And the deposit has almost nothing to compare in size and amount of gold in USA
        ( not in Russia)
        I know if does not work with the current gold price, but if we were to agree that in 3 years gold will be well north to 2000$
        Why just not invest in Donlin ?

        Reply

    Skeena?

    Reply
    Tim Choisbalsan Outter Mongolia 14/12/21 9:05 pm

    A little cheeky for the CEO to be comparing this to Hemlo IMO. Lots of 1 m intersections being smeared out to 10 m. Hemlo did not need to do this. Can probably get away with this in an OP but more difficult to execute UG as Pretium found out.

    Reply

    Greetings MR.IKn, do you believe there are other suitors of GBR or do you think Barrick is the only potential bidder? Thanks

    Reply

      I have no clue about other suitors. For me it’s 50/50 Barrick bids and simply because it has financial room to do so. No more/no less, but that’s enough to hold my GBR shares. I’m not trying to get inside Bristow’s head (just the thought is a bit nauseating).

      Low downside risk + potential gravy on a winning trade = easy hold. The end.

      Reply

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