IKN

Win us with honest trifles

(UPDATED) Great Bear and Barrick’s Full Greek Cheese

The way Great Bear Resources (GBR.v) is trading in Q4…

…plus the manner in which Barrick has locked up the land around Dixie (and with the assistance of GBR itself in certain specific zones, we hear) makes this deal Full Greek Cheese*. All we’re waiting for now is the hammer to drop, plus of course the inevitable moans from the peanut gallery on how the ticket price is too low. Buying at $23 may not make you a lot and we probably need to wait until 1q22 now, but dead certs are not supposed to be doubles anyway.

Disclosure: A small long that I won’t sell before the print. FWIW my guess is $30.

*Feta complete

UPDATE: Utterly bizarre. Posted the above, went out for the evening stroll, came back an hour later and…

Kinross to Acquire Great Bear for C$29.00 per Share, Plus a Contingent Value Right

…here we go, Kinross has forced Bristow’s hand. There’s no way this one goes uncontested so hold all your shares people, Special K just made C$85m with one news release (linko here).

21 Comments

    Good guess. $29 a share from Special K

    Reply

      Very glad you commented, otherwise nobody would have believed this post went up less than an hour before the deal was announced. Sheer luck in timing and zero insight on my part. Thanks and added an update FWIW

      Reply

        Barrrick is bound to come over the top of this. It’s about time we had a contested M&A.

        Reply

          Or the other possible is Barrick buying Kinross and GBR

          Reply

            Any chance they circle back on PVG? Trading below initial offer now.

            Mebbe. It’s certainly game-on in BristowLand.

            Though the more I think about it, the more i’d be tempted to go straight for the jugular and buy out Kinross. This could get interesting quickly (hope so)

            I’d prefer Barrick to Kinross, but I’m glad there’s movement. I like the way Barrick’s debt is structured to be due after this next bull market. Brilliant. I wish Bristow weren’t so penny-wise and pound foolish, esp. in this case 🙂

            Strong agreement. One point I made in an exchange with a mailpal this evening is that Bristow must do something around this deal, else look totally behind the curve. Lots of talk about Barricks’ desire to remain Canadian, if nothing happens this time he’ll be labelled AfricaBoy once and for all. I don’t think he can wait for BMO/PDAC and has to move earlier rather than later, or not at all. Meanwhile NEM and its world class project pipeline looks on from afar as others pay up for assets, wonders what all the fuss is about. NEM has been “least worst” among majors this year for a reason.

    That escalated quickly! Surely this isn’t done. Barrick won’t want Kinross in their backyard.

    Reply

    That escalated quickly! Surely this isn’t done. Barrick won’t want Kinross in their backyard.

    Reply

    Up to now, M+A focus has been on majors acquiring larger assets in 1st-tier jurisdictions (Kirkland/Agnico, Pretium/Newcrest, Great Bear/Kinross). You raise the idea of Barrick absorbing Kinross/Great Bear in a larger merger.

    What do you think of merger possibilities for mid-tiers whose assets could have break-up/spin-off value? I am thinking in particular of IAMGOLD. They are shifting their production mix back toward Canada with the larger Cote project, 2023 production est.

    Reply

      I don’t know enough about IMG, to be honest. But i hear you on break up values, the 2nd or 3rd thing that came to mind about Special K tonight was Paracatu in Brazil and how Equinox or similar would jump at that chance as Barrick would surely dispose.

      But sorry, can’t speak on IMG without showing how dumb i am

      Reply
    Nikko Montreal Ouest 09/12/21 3:07 am

    Barrick wont be paying up as Bristow is too smart. Kinross is desperate as Kupol, their best asset is closing shortly. For GBR, Barrick wojld be way better as they are a much better management team than K who IMO is quite pathetic.

    Reply
    Nikko Montreal Ouest 09/12/21 3:09 am

    OHH. Kinross will be down today as well…likely 5-10%

    Reply

      Not nesser celery. This scenario comes with extra fun and games. For one, the market will bet this deal is voted down as stands.

      Reply

    There’s more to come from Otso. Happy to fill you in

    Reply

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