In the last five days we’ve seen two junior mining Feasibility Studies hit the wires, one from Nevada Copper (NCU.to) and one from Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v). They of course have their differences (after all one is copper and the other is silver, we can start there and build a big long list) but they have one basic thing in common: They both choose unrealistic “base case” prices in order to make the projects look more attractive than they are:
NCU.to used a U$3.15/lb copper price for its “base case”. Copper is at U$2.72/lb (or $2.76 last week when the feas came out). We haven’t seen U$3.15/lb copper since October.
BCM.v used a U$20/oz silver price for its “base case”. Silver is at U$16.71/oz. The last time silver Ag traded at $20/oz was August.
Perhaps this alone explains why the two share prices have dropped since the arrival of the 43-101 feasibility studies (NCU $1.93 to $1.79 down 7.3% / BCM $1.06 to $0.96 down 9.4% only yesterday),
Feas studies (not PEAs, not “pre-feas”) are supposed to be serious documents, so why are they presented in such a deluded, silly, downright stupid way by these style-over-substance merchants of BS? Now I know that I’m tempting a few people to send me that usual mail with “ah yeah, but a FS isn’t for the retail brigade, it’s a highly detailed technical document that’s for professional industry inside expert consumption” but that’s obviously craptalk. If it were that and only that, why try to BS people in the first place with flashy splashy unrealistic spinned out numbers?
I’ll tell you what happens when I, the non-expert, opens one of the NRs:
1) I look at the headlines
2) I immediately go to the tables with NPV, IRR, Capex
3) I search for any set of figures that demonstrate the company isn’t taking itself or its readership seriously (eg stupid high base case metals prices that bear no resemblance to current reality).
4) If I find them, I close the NR and go do something more important.
LIFE IS TOO SHORT TO READ THROUGH ANOTHER BULLSHIT MESSAGE FROM ANOTHER BULLSHIT JUNIOR! Got that, Swarthout? Got that Bonifacio currently in New York this fine Wednesday morning failing to market your marginal project to a bunch of brokerages? Maybe your project isn’t bullshit. Maybe it has legs and is robust and has a future. But if so, why wrap it in BS to begin with? Oh, nearly forgot, the CEO who replies with “Yabbut the 43-101 is a third party document and as such we have no control in…” can go sexually intercourse him or her self. You may think we’re that stupid, that’s your prerogative.
Be clear, get this into your heads mining CEOs. We out here may have been stupid enough to believe your stories in 2010 or 2012, but “once bitten twice shy” is a lasting idiom and a part of the language because it really means something. If you’re not 100% clean, straight and honest with us you don’t get our money, not any more. The game has changed and if you don’t see that, you’re going the way of the dinosaurs.