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IKN’s final post on the 2012 Venezuela elections

We’re now two weeks and a bit from the October 7th vote that will decide whether Hugo Chávez Frías keeps his job or whether Henrique Capriles Radonski gets a new job. As the media bullshit chatter is already ratcheting up and is going to get a lot worse in the days left, IKN is therefore going to keep away from all the false polemics and liberty/tyranny/democracy/dictatorship/freedom/fair/fraud tosh and nonsense that your media channels of choice are bound to subject you to and make this post today our final comment on the subject until October 8th minimum. So for the record…
  • I think Chávez is favourite and if you wanted a book number from me, I’d go for something around 75% chance. Purely seat-of-pants subjective stuff. Put another gun to my head and I’d go for Chávez securing 55% of valid votes come the big day. Again, guesstimate.
  • However, this means that Capriles has about 24% more chance than any other candidate running against Chávez in recent years and his campaign shouldn’t be written off. Henrique Capriles has run a good campaign, a smart campaign and has played to his strengths more than trying to attack Chávez on any given occasion. That type of slugfest would have favoured Chávez much more, so Capriles’ strategic decision to keep away from the insult-swapping type of campaign has been a good one.  Bottom line: I’d consider it a surprise if he wins, but not a stunning surprise.
  • But one 100% dead cert is that media coverage and anal yst comment is going to be all-but insufferable. World-and-his-spouse all suddenly experts on the intricacies of Venezuelan politics? Why of course!
  • The final confident prediction is that on October 8th, the losers will be calling fraud. That, my fine feathered friends, is a given.

So, until October 8th and if you really have the right type of masochistic streak that insists you keep up with the BS show, Two Weeks Notice is as good a filter as any, I think.  

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