drowsy syrups of the world

I’m getting a lot of mails about B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to) this morning…

…so to stem the tide, here’s my position on the stock’s issues at Masbate:
Pu simply I’m in “wait and see” mode. From what I’ve picked up, its problems at Masbate aren’t as serious as other mines on the Philippino hit list. However, there whole loose cannon thing around this government makes things more difficult to read. There has been opposition to the Masbate mine on the island for many years, but that’s mostly about accusations of land-grabbing. The mine is a big employer and job supplier (direct/indirect) to the local economy, it’s not easy to cut that off…but it’s not impossible either if you have a bigger political point to make.
Regarding valuation, Masbate is a large contributor to the BTO sales mix but it’s not that much of the overall value. You’re individual anal yst and brokerage house will argue the toss about the exact percentage, I have it at around 22% of NAV. As BTO is now 13% off in trading today, the market is signalling a binary up/down resolution in the near future and that’s a reasonable stance.
I’m not a seller of BTO (as subbers know, I’m long and overweight the stock). I’m not a buyer/adder yet, either. I’ll be very interested to get BTO’s take on this, that’s bound to come soon enough in an NR. In the NR I’ll want as much information as possible, any nook and cranny, as what’s left out of a NR such as the one coming from BTO matters as much as what’s put in.

One final thing: My inner investor isn’t really that worried or nervous about this, which surprises me a little. I’m taking that as a good sign, but it’s a wholly personal thing.

UPDATE lunchtime: BTO announces this and
the feeling above fits into the contents that 1) not as serious as other
cases 2) the loose cannon effect still can’t be ruled out. Bottom line is that before I was reasonably relaxed about holding through, now I’m even more relaxed, but I’m too whussy to add any more (plus I’m already overweight BTO, the eggs-in-one-basket rule says I shouldn’t rush and and get more). Or as reader RL succinctly put it in the shortest mail I’ve received today, “Overblown…blow over”.

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