saucy doubts and fears

Massive upset result in Argentina elections

Here’s the screenshot of the front page of La Nacion, right now:
With 68% of votes counted Mauricio Macri has 36% of the vote, Daniel Scioli 34% and those two will go into a second round run-off to decide who becomes President of Argentina. It’ll probably be tight between the top two once 100% of votes are counted.
But that simple statement does no justice to the massive upset behind thoe numbers: Scioli was expected to win round one and plenty of people (your author included) were tipping him to win by enough votes (40%+, with the second place at least ten points behind) to win in round one. Even this afternoon when exit polls came out, people were assuming a comfortable vitory for Scioli and the first round win was a possible.
NOT ONLY IS THERE A SECOND ROUND, BUT MACRI LEADS RIGHT NOW! This is an enormous upset, people. Macri must be favourite for the run-off now and the reason seems to be the population of Buenos Aires Province deserting the government candidates.

PS: If you’re holding Argentina bonds this weekend, prepare to have a very good day tomorrow.

UPDATE: With 84% of votes counted Scioli now has a slight lead, with 35.7% to Macri’s 35.3%. But that doesn’t change the fact that this is an enormous upset result that very few people saw coming (again, your author included, I thought Scioli had a real chance of winning the whole thing today). And Macri will be favourite going into round two, while Scioli will bank on not having the Anibal Fernandez yoke around his neck in BsAs Prov. Hell’s bells it’s going to be one doozy of a run-off campaign.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Hello, you are not in a chatroom, you are in my living room. Opposing views and criticisms welcome, insults or urinating on furniture unwelcome. Please refrain from swearing if possible, it is not needed.