All good clean fun in the Canadian brokerages. Not.
Fortuna Silver Mines
Stock Rating:
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Industry Rating:
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Research Comment
BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.
Assoc: Alexandra Syrnyk, CFA /
Scott Gryba, P.Eng., P.Geo.
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Upgrading to Outperform; Market Pull-Back Overdone
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Event
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FVI’s share price has dropped 22% after the company reported a Q4/11 EPS miss late last week. The share price decline appears to be a reaction to increasing costs, permitting concerns at the Callyoma mine, recent community violence around the San Jose mine, as well as concerns that optimization and expansion programs to reduce costs at both operations will be delayed.
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Impact
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Potentially Positive. While cost escalation is a reality in the sector, BMO Research sees the Q4/11 EPS miss as an isolated event. FVI has established a solid operator reputation underscored by the successful commissioning of the San Jose mine in Q3/11. The risk to implementing optimization programs appears to be overdone with FVI in a good position to increase production rates at both Callyoma and San Jose in 2013.
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Forecasts
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BMO Research forecasts 2012 production of 3.6Moz silver, 17.0koz gold at revised co-product cash costs of US$14.14/oz silver (up 27% from BMO Research’s previous estimate of US$11.33/oz).
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Valuation
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Factoring in higher costs and the recent share price decline, FVI is trading at 1.1x its 10% nominal NPV at spot metal prices, a 15% discount to intermediate and junior peers at 1.3x providing an attractive entry point for investors.
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Recommendation
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BMO Research is upgrading FVI to Outperform, but lowering its target price to $6.75 to reflect recent guidance on operating cost escalation.
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