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Mo’ Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM): Andrew Kaip of BMO upgrades tonight to a buy rating

All good clean fun in the Canadian brokerages. Not. 
Anyway, here’s the link to the full BMO report that went out to their list at 10:30pm tonight and here’s the cover letter that came with it.

Fortuna Silver Mines

(FVI-TSX)
Stock Rating:
Outperformá
Industry Rating:
Outperform
March 28, 2012
Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
Andrew Kaip, P.Geo.
BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.
(416) 359-7224
Andrew.Kaip@bmo.com
Assoc: Alexandra Syrnyk, CFA /
Scott Gryba, P.Eng., P.Geo.
Upgrading to Outperform; Market Pull-Back Overdone
Event
FVI’s share price has dropped 22% after the company reported a Q4/11 EPS miss late last week. The share price decline appears to be a reaction to increasing costs, permitting concerns at the Callyoma mine, recent community violence around the San Jose mine, as well as concerns that optimization and expansion programs to reduce costs at both operations will be delayed.
Impact
Potentially Positive. While cost escalation is a reality in the sector, BMO Research sees the Q4/11 EPS miss as an isolated event. FVI has established a solid operator reputation underscored by the successful commissioning of the San Jose mine in Q3/11. The risk to implementing optimization programs appears to be overdone with FVI in a good position to increase production rates at both Callyoma and San Jose in 2013.
Forecasts
BMO Research forecasts 2012 production of 3.6Moz silver, 17.0koz gold at revised co-product cash costs of US$14.14/oz silver (up 27% from BMO Research’s previous estimate of US$11.33/oz).
Valuation
Factoring in higher costs and the recent share price decline, FVI is trading at 1.1x its 10% nominal NPV at spot metal prices, a 15% discount to intermediate and junior peers at 1.3x providing an attractive entry point for investors.
Recommendation
BMO Research is upgrading FVI to Outperform, but lowering its target price to $6.75 to reflect recent guidance on operating cost escalation.

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