What we hear: Bloomberg reports that Bolivia exports for January were down 32.9% compared to January 2008. The total of $345.85m means there is a $170m or gap in the macroeconomic numbers compared to last year. For sure it’s a big drop and part of it includes the exports lost to the US market due to the withdrawal of ATPDEA concessions, but the main chunk is the new, lower pricing for its gas exports to Brazil. This comes as no surprise to anyone with half a brain that has analysed the situation.
What we don’t hear: Bolivia was adding to its international currency reserves to the tune of $250m a month at this time last year. So let’s just assume that Bolivia doesn’t move over the excess to its (already all time record) reserves this year; that would mean Bolivia has more than enough money coming in and doesn’t have to feel the pinch on a day-to-day basis, this at a time when nearly every other LatAm country is taking money out of its reserves to fund programs.
Bottom line: Expect people with less than half a brain to “raise questions” (a lot of them get featured at the HACER hatemonger’s website). Expect Bolivia not to worry. Also expect Bolivia to get through 2009 far better than those truly exposed to this world recession.