Take physic, pomp

Parsing Olivier Garret of Casey Research

Olivier Garret has just sent a mailer out to his merry flock, that tries to explain just why the Casey Research $20 per person “Market Gonna Crash Act NOW!” call of October 21st isn’t going quite the way they imagined.

IKN parses his mail for you below. Olivier’s in black, IKN’s in red.

Dear Reader,
Most of you will recall our
recent warning to prepare for the Crash of 2014. In that
communication, I alerted you to the extreme danger facing global markets and
the technical indicators pointing toward an imminent and significant market
We all do. In fact we’re still laughing
about it.
Our recommendations were to:
  • trim your portfolio to only its strongest
    stocks, the issues with the most emphatic fundamental reasons for owning
  • hold the resulting cash in US dollars;
  • keep your gold;
  • but buy “gold insurance,” in the form
    of puts on GLD, to counter potential weakness in precious metals and
    related stocks; and
  • buy long-term Treasuries as a speculation that
    interest rates would move still lower.
Yup, that was the bit we laughed about the
most, but a nasty bout of selective memory going on here, Olivier: What about the puts you told people to buy that have gone in exactly the wrong direction? Those slip your mind?
As of today, the Crash of
2014 I warned of hasn’t happened. Yet.
Early = wrong, period.
Everyone at Casey Research
knows that we don’t have a crystal ball. We do have solid analytical skills and
a realistic view of the world on our side,
No you don’t
 but we can’t predict the exact timing of a
market crash.
So why did you sell a $20 special alert
that told people to act “NOW”. That’s what’s called trying to predict exact
We can only assess the risk
of one occurring.
And fail miserably at it through poor
analysis and drawing the wrong conclusions
 We continue to rate the risk as high, given
the now worldwide folly of limitless QE, currency debasement, spiraling
government debt and investor leverage, and the metastasizing tangle of
financial derivatives.
Fuck off
It is not going to end well
for conventionally thinking buy-and-hold stock market investors.
Adding a sense of urgency to
long-held concerns about such fundamentals was the number of critical technical
indicators that turned bearish this fall.
That were in your imagination.
All of a sudden last month,
market players seemed to wake up to the geopolitical and economic worries
they’d been ignoring. They got spooked. Sentiment turned extremely bearish, but
it wasn’t just a matter of volatile investor emotions, and it wasn’t just the
long-scheduled wind-up of the Fed’s Quantitative Easing. The market seemed to
be waking up to the plain facts and recognizing them as frightening.
Ah, let me guess. Casey Research tipped off
the Fed, the European Bank, Abe in Japan and fortunately they saw it your way,
acted quickly and headed off a world financial collapse. All thanks to your
early warning. That right?
Then the Federal Reserved
started backpedaling on its plan to end QE immediately. That was no great
surprise, but the announcement from the Bank of Japan that quickly followed was
a surprise to almost everyone: a commitment to purchase all the bonds that
Japan’s high-deficit government wanted to issue, i.e., QE from here to over the
rainbow. The largest Japanese pension fund promptly announced that it would
diversify into equities – and not just Japanese stocks, but US stocks as well.
That was all it took for Wall Street bulls to come raging back. Mario Draghi
topped it all by signaling that the European Central Bank would jump on the QE
infinity bandwagon. Now, a few weeks later, markets are making new highs.
Yup, that’s right. So who do you have slated to
play Doug Casey in the Miniseries? Please don’t say Brad. Please let it be Pee Wee Herman.
So while 2014 isn’t over
yet, it appears I was early with the warning of a crash.
Appears? Early? Try “I was wrong”, because
we’d really enjoy one single sentence of honesty and sincerity from you cowards
before the end of the decade.
Of course I was. 

C’mon Olly…say the word…c’mon…not difficult…”wrong”…starts with a Ru sound…you can do it…

An early
warning is the only kind likely to do any good.
We repeat the law of markets: Early =
wrong, period.
It’s not fun – and for some
subscribers it’s been painful – to watch the stocks they sold keep rising.
The idiots that acted on your pathetic
panic call deserve everything they get.
But the alternative to
getting out early is to stay fully invested and hope you’ll get out at the last
moment, just as the crash is starting.
The binary world of morons. You’re either
with us or you’re against us. Christians versus infidels. You cannot make any
choices other than the ones we offer you. Fuck off.
 Many investors are telling themselves they’re
going to do just that – so many, in fact, that the eventual result will
resemble one of those horrible stories of soccer fans getting crushed as
thousands stampede and jam the stadium exits. If you judge that trouble is
coming, leave the stadium early, even though that means missing part of the
What. The. Fuck? The Casey full time and
highly paid copywriters take the day off, did they?
Leaving early entails a cost
in foregone profits, but all in all, for most readers the cost has been modest.
Our call for asset deflation, including commodities and energy, has been
correct; we’ve avoided losses in that area. Staying in US dollars rather than
any of the competing paper currencies has also saved us some losses. By holding
on to our strongest stocks, we’ve profited from the market’s overall rise. And
we still expect long-term Treasuries to do well next year.
Woah, stop. You make a 100% incorrect call
on a market crash and you’re now trying to windle out of it by talking about
other trades that failed to make a loss?
I want you to know that all
of us at Casey Research drink our own Kool-Aid
OK, that bit made me laugh out loud. You
really, but really need to look up the origins of that phrase and what it
really means. Really.
and invest according to the
recommendations we publish.
No you don’t. You front-run them.
 We believe that the last round of
unprecedented central bank actions has – at most – only postponed the
inevitable for a little while longer and has done so at the cost of making the
inevitable even messier.
The same spiel from Doug Casey since 2008.
Much longer to wait, is there?
We are confident that we and
our subscribers are positioning themselves well by owning the best companies in
recession-proof sectors, and lots of cash and gold.
Fuck off.
 That way, we won’t risk getting crushed in the
exits, and while we wait for the crash, we’ll have a free hand to exploit the
speculative opportunities that Casey Research works diligently to identify.
The free hand is for masturbation.
The best of those
opportunities may soon come to us from the resource sector. We likely are close
to a final market capitulation for junior resource stocks, which could coincide
with tax-loss season in the Canadian markets and the need for junior stock
funds to raise cash to pay for year-end redemptions by their investors.
 Got your prayer beads at the ready?
 But don’t let those
opportunities draw you back toward a portfolio that is fully invested, with
little or no cash. The unprecedented market backdrop of QE everywhere and QE
all the time is pushing the world economy toward more and more leverage and
hence exposing the markets to more and more danger.
Fear’s brief October
appearance on Wall Street wasn’t a false alarm.
It was merely false. The same word as your
panic crash NOW call, in fact.
All the most serious market
crashes have been preceded by such early tremors.
Remember that the October
2008 crash triggered by the Lehman bankruptcy was preceded by: (i) Bear
Stearns’ $2 billion loss reported in June 2007; (ii) the Northern Rock collapse
three months later; (iii) the distress sale of Bear Stearns to JP Morgan in
March 2008; and (iv) the bankruptcy of IndyMac in July 2008. The markets,
encouraged by Federal Reserve assurances, shrugged off every one of those
warning signs. Then the market cracked.
So while today the urgency
of the matter seems to have subsided, it would be a grave mistake not to
prepare for a crisis that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. We’ll be
It would be a grave mistake to take
anything you say seriously, Garret
On behalf of Casey Research,
I wish all our American subscribers a happy Thanksgiving, and to all of our
subscribers, I extend my best wishes for the coming holiday season.
And after acting on our call in October, we
hope you have enough money left for a turkey.

Olivier Garret

UPDATE: Reader MP sends in this:

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