children of an idle brain

Peru elections: First exit polls say its Keiko first, second is tight between PPK and Mendoza

It’s 4pm in Peru, the polls have just closed and the first exit polls have just come out. They look like this, according to IPSOS
Keiko Fujimori 37.8%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 20.9%
Veronika Mendoza 20.3%
The other candidates don’t matter. That’s a uncallable one for second place, but a slight advantage for PPK.
We know Keiko’s in the round two run-off, we know she doesn’t have the 50% to win in this round. It’s tight between PPK and Mendoza for second place. 
Please be warned that the first exit poll numbers aren’t always accurate, there’s a long way to go before we know for sure who is the second place candidate and in the run-off with Keiko.

UPDATE: Exit pollster GFK is also calling it a “technical dead heat” between PPK and Mendoza with a slight advantage to PPK.

UPDATE 2: The less reactive end of the Peru political commentariat tell your humble scribe that Veronika Mendoza has a strong chance of making it to round two on the back of this exit poll result, as the rural votes that don’t make it into this snapshot should favour her. We shall see, but I’d say that even the 9pm “first official” number, which gives us between 20% and 30% of the totals, isn’t going to give us a clear second place number. We’re going to have to wait until tomorrow Monday for a result on this one. Gonna be tight, folks.

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