IKN

a plague o both your houses

(lots of updates) Peru Presidential election flash result

These numbers are not official, rather exit polls conducted by polling companies for media companies. We’ll get the first official-type result later when Peru’s ONPE gives its fast-count results. But so far, we have Keiko Fujimori at 50.3% and Pedro Castillo at 49.7%. At this preliminary stage, we can only say Keiko Fujimori is leading as it’s too close to call a virtual President-elect of Peru.

UPDATE: Peru’s official electoral body ONPE expects to deliver its fast count result, a normally highly accurate count that decides President-elect, in around two hours’ time now scheduled for 10pm local time (that’s 11pm in New York) 11:30pm local time (that’s 00:30 New York and I hate it when countries do this). The atmosphere in Peru this evening is tense, to say the least.

Another Update: Still the IPSOS pollster but this time with access to official results, a new fast count poll gives Pedro Castillo 50.2%, Keiko Fujimori 49.8%. Still way too close to call until the official ONPE Fast Count results are given.

Another update: First ONPE official numbers and, with 42.03% of votes counted, Keiko has 52.9% to Pedro’s 47.1% of valid votes. As first results to ONPE offices tend to urban areas, this ties in with tonight’s overriding message that it’s going to be close (and a long night).

Another update: With 56.4% of votes counted, it’s Keiko 52.5%, Pedro 47.5%. That’s the tendency expected at rural votes begin to predominate, the question is whether Keiko has enough of a cushion.

Another update: We are at 73% of votes counted, Keiko 52.32%, Pedro 47.68%. So far at least, the expected rural weighting hasn’t shown for Pedro Castillo and if we get to 90% with this gap, it will be all over.

Another: 77.5% of votes counted, Keiko 52%, Pedro 48%.

UPDATE 02:40am: This time there is a clear movement as with 80.7% of votes tallied, we are 51.5% Keiko and 48.4% Pedro. In other words, 3% of added votes created a 0.5% swing to Castillo, that’s the rural votes arriving.

UPDATE 03:17 local time: Keiko 51.2%, Pedro 48.8%, with 83.2% of votes counted.

UPDATE 04:12am local time: Tighter indeed, it’s now getting to the point where Pedro Castillo looks like catching Keiko Fujimori. Right now, the count stands at Keiko 50.769% and Pedro 49.231%, with 86.476% of votes counted. The last couple of updates have seen Castillo eat more quickly into the slight lead.

Suddenly, a lot will depend on the overseas vote counts and that means we’re not going to get a call on the next President for days.

UPDATE 05:06am: The trend is now clear, Castillo is catching Fujimori. The running total is Keiko 50.506% and Pedro 49.494%, with 88.871% of votes counted. We’re going to have yet another contested election result though, whoever gets the nod from ONPE.

(probably final) UPDATE: Now 06:49 and at 90.482% of votes counted, Keiko has 50.321% and Pedro has 49.679%. The tendency is clear and at the current rate, Pedro Castillo will pass Keiko Fujimori’s vote count around the 94% level.

4 Comments

    Are you considering the expat peruvian vote? i understand the tendency is for Keiko (except for Norway and Chile) and that those votes are yet to be counted.

    Reply

    That 94% estimate was correct. With now 95% counted Castillo is ahead by some 55,000 votes.

    But the remaining 5% that is still to be counted are the foreign votes? And these are expected to be in favour of Fujimori? So the tables could be turned again?

    Reply
    Richard Grabman People's Republic of Mexico 07/06/21 9:23 pm

    From Peruvian pundits and pundit wannabes (for what they’re worth), counting on the overseas vote may be a lost cause. Apparently only about 40% of overseas voters bothered, and even if stongly pro-Keiko, not enough to overcome Castillo’s advantage. This at 22:30 Lima Time, 23:30 here in Mexico City.

    Reply

    Thanks for this information

    Reply

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