With the headlines of GDP growth in Peru catching eyes (compared to a crappy month in 2009 it looks stellar, but even taking the baseline into account it was a good figure posted) IKN thought it’d take a look at a set of stats that’s usually more reliable than the manipulated headline BS, that of cement dispatches in Peru.
Cement is a useful baseline to gauge activity, especially construction activity (duh) because it’s usually consumed nationally (negligible exports from Peru), it has a limited lifespan as a product (not so much hoarding) and it also takes plenty people to move it around and do things with it (especially in a largely non-mechanized country such as Peru where you often see cement and sand being mixed by hand and shovel to make the concrete for somebody’s house). So here’s the annual chart:
Our prediction for 2010 may turn out to be slightly on the low side, in fact, but even if we out by a few thousand metric tonnes either side, the tendency is crystal clear. Peru is building things and alot of it is because people have access to loans and credit facilities, often for the very first time. Because owing nothing to anybody is soooo old fashioned and being in hock for your adult life is progress. Right?
Yeah well, maybe a bit too snarky. Peru is showing strong construction growth and that’s a good thing overall, that we can say.