2) A lot of the “feared” drop in the Nuevo Sol has already been baked into the market. The Sol has appreciated significantly in the last couple of weeks, now standing at S/3.245 to the greenback.
3) It will go hand-in-hand with FinMin Carranza’s crisis planning (even though his own plan is pissing somewhat into the wind). During Carranza’s first term as FinMin there was no love lost between himself and bank chairman Velarde, but this will be a chance to show that Peru’s two main macro institutions can work together.
4) Exports (and the lamentable “buy Peruvian” campaign just re-started by Twobreakfasts) will benefit from a weaker Nuevo Sol.
5) The BCRP will have to cut anyway! So it may as well start now.
So it’s Otto versus the local pros. Look out for the announcement this time tomorrow.