Bruno Seminario, leading economist at the UP Universidad Pacifico, has just published this report that shows just how much of a sham the Twobreakfasts government’s GDP figures really are. You’ll remember that since Twobreakfasts took power the INEI stats office quietly and without any warning, the INEI stats office changed bosses (to an APRA friendly guy) and changed the methodology of GDP calculation. Much of the heavy criticism in recent weeks has been about this change (see this to find out details) because much of the calculation is now done in an uncheckable, black box style that is easily manipulated for political ends (and by all accounts, successfully done, too). So what Seminario has done is to take the raw data and apply the old methodology, i.e. that used in the governments previous to Twobreakfasts, and see how things pan out.
The change is massive, and here’s the chart.
Instead of the 3.05% growth rate recorded by the present dubious method, March 2009 comes in at -1.73%, a stunning turnararound of 4.78%. In fact, according to the old method, Peru has been in recession for the whole of 2009. It now becomes clear why this bunch of liars wanted to change the method and also said nothing for three years about the changes. The difference between the two methodologies is just too great to dismiss and must raise serious, nay fatal, questions about the way the data is being collated, calculated and disseminated at present.
The discredited economic policies of Twobreakfasts, Carranza et al cannot be hidden behind a bunch of falsified numbers. The road being taken right now by Peru is the same road taken by Argentina in 2007 when Kirchner decided to change the bosses at INDEC to get himself a bunch of new and better macro numbers. Soon enough, inside the country incredulity turned to anger and anger to laughter, but the world outside Argentina simply turned its back on the country as an invetsment vehicle. This is the chronic damage that is caused by cooking the macroeconomic books.