It’s not merely a decline any longer, as Peru’s second biggest export (after copper) is going downhill fast and here are the charts to prove the point.
First up, this shows monthly production since 2005:
Second, you take those production figures, factor in the average monthly London Fix price (available on kitco) and you get the dollar export value for gold each month:
This last chart shows how the year-over-year percentage change for Peru’s monthly gold revenues (i.e. that chart we just saw above) has been doing in the key period since 2010:
And that’s a big drop. By looking at the three charts, the problem becomes clear enough. Chart one shows the gradual decline in production, which means not nearly enough new mines coming on line to replace those that are now depleting fast (Yanacocha, Pierina, Lagunas Norte etc). As chart two shows, this wasn’t noticed by the world in the 2009-2012 period thanks to the rise in gold prices, the cracks were duly papered over and all was hunkydory. But now that gold prices have dropped, the lack of development in production ounce terms is hitting home.
Or to sum all that up in a neat and simple manner:
1) Peru got lucky
2) Peru rode its luck
3) Its luck ran out.
So much for the economic miracle.