Today sees the publication of one of the more useful and detailed polling surveys in Peru, the quarterly update run by the Universidad Catolica (PUCP). The whole PDF report is on this link, so go check it out (there’s plenty more stats than just the headline number shown here, too). It’s required reading for Peru politic-watchers because 1) PUCP has a good reputation amongst peers and 2) this poll is done on a national level in both urban and rural areas, thus giving a more complete picture of the national trends. Here’s the chart:
It’s shaping up as a three horse race for the April 10th vote, with Luis, Keiko and Alejandro all looking to make it into the two-person run-off that will happen on June 5th if no candidate gets more than 50% + 1 vote (a virtual lock). Ollanta isn’t making any sort of progress, Mercedes (the ruling APRA candidate) has had a month to make her prescence felt and hasn’t done much so far, PPK may move up in the next poll due to last week’s official launch of his alliance, but his job is to make it past 5% and get his party members seats in Congress rather than expect a serious tilt at the crown.
FWIW (not much) I’m sticking with Toledo as my “he’s the least worst” pick, with Castañeda up against him in the run-off….but it’s still early in this game.