IKN

Hereditary sloth instructs me

Regarding albatrosses and necks (from IKN 319)

This is the intro spiel for IKN319. I get the occasional nudge from subscribers to put this-or-that piece from The IKN Weekly on the public blog, but I didn’t think for a second that anyone would push me to stick this thing on here. I was wrong, the third mail with the same request just landed this evening and so hey, what the Henry? The only thing that changes is the redaction of a couple of company names right at the end, the rest is as stands.
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Regarding
albatrosses and necks
Down dropt
the breeze, the sails dropt down,
‘Twas sad as
sad could be;
And we did
speak only to break
The silence
of the sea!
All in a hot
and copper sky,
The bloody
Sun, at noon,
Right up
above the mast did stand,
No bigger than
the Moon.
Day after
day, day after day,
We stuck,
nor breath nor motion;
As idle as a
painted ship
Upon a
painted ocean.
Water,
water, everywhere,
And all the
boards did shrink;
Water,
water, everywhere,
Nor any drop
to drink.
The Rime of the Ancient Mariner
Samuel Taylor Coleridge
There’s this ongoing line of complete
bullshit commentary in the metals and mining world that’s so pervasive it’ll
even suck me in on occasion. It’s sellside crap to the Nth degree.
·     If times are good buy
stocks, they’re going up.
·     If times are bad buy
stocks because the cycle will come around.
·     If times are neutral and
nothing is happening buy stocks, it’s a coiled spring out there.
And for sure no, that doesn’t just
apply to the mining industry
and its motley crew of assorted parasites, but as this whole sector smacks of
the desperation of wanting SOMETHING to HAPPEN because if not, the blood will
stop flowing and the parasites will have nothing left to feed upon, I’m finding
it all a bit too brazen to bear easily.
We’re down to promoting a
“selective bull”, peddling expertise in the bifurcating market,
promising riches by choosing the best and forgetting the ones that will have to
die. “Stick with me, I’m the smart
connected writer, and for a modest monthly sum I’ll lead you through the
minefield of moose-pasture peddlers and show you the real deal miners”
.
We’re down to cheering any minor move made by silver against gold and ignoring
in finest “LahLahLah I Can’t Hear You” manner any macro market news
that doesn’t fit the narrative. We’re down to pushing conferences
“headlined” by the same abject idiots who predicted imminent
hyperinflation five years ago and who’ll just say the same things to their
dwindling band of True Believers in this conference season, and charge them
hundreds of fiat dollars for the privilege to boot. We’re down to the sellside
brokerages running half million dollar brokered private placements. We’re down
to minor exploreco pumps, to promotional BS games that are turning incestuous
(witness the fun and games between the smarter and the dumber promoters around
Lion Gold (LIO.v) for a good example of how the smartest ones will survive by
eating the neophytes if necessary
). I could continue, but the real message I
want to get across is this:
A) Nothing is going to
happen in the metals market until gold takes off.
B) Gold may do something
in 2015, but it’s unlikely to happen before the end of the Northern summer.
That’s post-Labor Day, that’s 3q15, that’s going to feel like a loooong time
from today in late June.
C) Don’t waste your
money on mining sector commentary. Let us waste our own time, no need to join
us, there’s so much more out there that’s better to read (for example my own muse at this time, Infinite Jest by David Foster
Wallace
).
So do yourself a favour and sell a
few stocks, or lighten a few positions, take some cash off the table and go
play with it somewhere else or save it for when things get fun again because
believe me, this is not fun. Watching the desperation in freeloaders’ eyes is
not fun. Trying and failing to explain to junior mining company officers that
the party isn’t just over but it’s OVER FOREVER is no fun. While you’re at it, why
not unsubscribe from this publication and any other that’s managed to get you
to part you from some of your hard-earned cash? That’s money you could better
spend on your spouse, your kin, your car, whatever you like that gives some
pleasure. If you feel like coming back later in the year you’ll be very welcome
here (and I’d vouchsafe that’s true for anywhere else you unsub this week) but
I see no reason why you should read and keep so fixated on a sector that’s
showing all signs of going precisely nowhere for the time being. Meanwhile I’m
going to keep ploughing on, pounding on numbers, looking at the sector, trying
to find a decent trade or three, but I also know that for the time being I’m
unlikely to deploy wholesale the cash that’s still sidelined, any sales such as
the ones announced today are moving details around the edges. My personal plans
include:
1) Selling what little copper
exposure I have left
2) Perhaps selling (name redacted) if a slightly higher out price shows up in the next couple of weeks.
3) Definitely buying some more (name redacted), perhaps adding to the gold producers.
4) Investigating a couple of
interesting explorecos on my radar.
5) Watching the market for any move
that proves my assumption of sector inertia wrong.
6) Reading non-business literature and classic
novels I’ve wanted to catch up on.
7) Other things too.
So stick around if you like. After
all, it’s your money not mine. But if you unsub yourself from this and other
publications, I’d bet you’d save yourself both time and money. 

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