Seriously, ladies and gents, you need to sell all mining exposure to Ecuador you might have in your portfolio and you need to do it now. The presidential election is now Yaku Pérez’s to lose and even if he isn’t elected on April 11th, the next couple of months are going to eat chunks out of the share prices of any mining company exposed to Ecuador.
This post is not a joke, not tongue-in-cheek, this is not a drill. Sell now.
Agree completely. Sold out of Ecuador 5 weeks ago. Perez will provide an even stronger voice to the various associations grouped within Pachakutik not only Andean but also Amazonian and Coastal. Need to let the election dust settle before looking again.
You assessment is right on, even though it’s only half the story. Win or lose Yacu Perez, there’s still the issue of the anti mining measure that passed by 80% in Ecuador’s third largest city, Cuenca, which will be replicated all over the country . There’s also the little known fact that out of the 16 presidential candidates, the most openly pro mining candidate , Giovanni Andrade, is tied in last place See my most recent post on this at http://www.decoin.com
Can anyone explain why there was ever a buy Ecuador play? Really…
22,000 votes separating Perez from Lasso. Vast majority of outstanding votes (nearly 500k?) from Lasso strongholds. Perez unfortunately won’t be making it to second round or provide the shake up Ecuador needs
There are 5% of actas con novedad left, Rafa Correa was already calling it for Lasso when there were 14% left. You do understand the difference between procesadas and con novedad, yeah? You’re not going to get wild swings, Guayas or not. They are disputing discrepancies. Going to be close, but every marker has been for Pérez to date including the hard exit poll which called a tight win.
“An exit poll by local pollster Clima Social showed Arauz with 36.2% of the vote compared with 21.7% for Lasso and 16.7% for Perez”
Ecuador has different institutions that can (and should) guarantee legal security for concessions and investments. The Constitutional Court has repeatedly stated (even before the Cuenca Popular Consultation) that existing rights cannot be affected by subsequent regulatory changes. Undoubtedly, the candidate Perez represents a threat to the sector, but from his previous position (as Prefect of Azuay) he sought consensus to prevent mining activity without success.
De hecho, si vas a defender al Ecuador aca, deberias mostrar tus habilidades en Español de antemano.
Vamos a tener una mineria en Ecuador. No se importa quien es El Presidente. la pregunta no es si habrá una mineria, sino qué tipo y cómo ellos van a gestionarlo. Es mejor si Perez gana la primera jornada, porque si, Lasso gana, Arauz ganara el presidencia y eso es la mas peor resultado por el pais.
Perez no es un tonto. Y el sabe que la economia tiene que funcionar con todo los sectores, se incluya la mineria. El va respetar derechos privados y los decisiones judicial.
Agree. Perez knows that role that mining has to play in Ecuador’s development. And in the world’s carbon crisis. He has stated that he will work with international companies that pay taxes. As investors we need to pick our EC prospects carefully. Which means projects that are not in important hydrologic areas or near sensitive cultures/species. The world needs Ecuador’s “green” copper – i.e., high grade and shallow, with well designed operating and reclamation plans.
Are you planning to issue a correction post?
En serio, cualquier comentario desde una persona sin habilidades en castellano es un malgasto de mi tiempo, no es el momento de empezar un curso de politica ecuadoreana 101 para crudos. Si te hace falta mensajes simples sin sentido, te lo recomiendo la cuenta tuiteh de Dan Earle.