Twobreakfasts’ secretary reads the INEI press release and wonders how to break the news
Over at Reuters, the economists* polled put Peru’s January GDP figure at an average of 4.0%. Meanwhile Bloomberg (who must have bothered to interview one bearish guy) had the average of those polled at 3.4%. As late as last week Peru’s Finance Ministry estimated January GDP at 4.5%.
The Peru stats office, INEI, reported the figure two hours ago. Peru’s January GDP growth came in at 3.14%, way below ‘expert’ opinion. In amongst the numbers manufacturing dropped by 2.69%, commerce grew by 2.53% and the building/construction sector upped by 4.5% (which sounds good but is a very disappointing result and way below expectations). Agro dropped by 1.46% and fishery by 21.05%. Mining activity grew by 10.69% (not export prices but oh my, hard landing for Month-over-Month figures coming in that sector in the months to come) and the mining services sector upped 5.99%.
But don’t let that worry you, because Twobreakfasts says it’s going to be 5% this year, and Carranza says 5% this year, and the Central Bank says 5% this year, and the IMF says 5% this year. I mean, why on earth should you listen to me and ignore all those utterly reliable and impartial sources?
*dumbasses in suits