IKN

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Ten IKN random 2012 predictions

Well, eleven really because here’s the important one: I’ll still be happily married and a proud father come December 31st 2012. Now for the periphery stuff on matters mining and/or LatAm.

  • Gold will make it back up to U$1,800/oz during the year. I continue to prefer gold to silver, by the way. No real call to make on Ag.
  • Copper has a weak-ish first quarter and picks up as the year goes on, with $4/lb seen again.
  • Junior mining companies have a much better year than 2011
  • The USA recovers economic momentum as the Presidential vote nears and Obama gets the re-election.
  • Peru’s government uses police/army force to quash anti-mining protests and push through projects. The Yanacocha Minas Conga project is approved. Humala ends the year with no more than a 30% approval rating. Peru’s mining industry carries on regardless.
  • Chávez wins the Venezuela election and loses weight, too. His win is due to 1) promises to his faithful and 2) the mediocrity of opposition.
  • AMLO wins the Mexico election and upsets PRI ambitions.
  • Brazil’s economy has a fairly weak though overall positive GDP growth year, with public sector stimulus and its decent internal economy making the difference.
  • Colombia’s mining industry has a good year, with % growth and more investment dollars received. Santos remains popular.
  • Evo Morales has a better year and his approval rating gets back over 50%.

And pretty promise, at the end of the year we’ll revisit this post and laugh heartily at the mistakes made. The end.

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