IKN

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Ten IKN random predictions for 2014

First let’s point you to the 2013 predictions and note that unashamedly I score myself an utterly biased 5.5/10, though anyone who has a look will quickly see that the political and sporting calls were way better than the financial calls (calls related to the gold price were particularly dumbass and depressing, 20/20 and all that). Overall, last year’s forecasts were for me a big fat failure, though the good political calls made up a little for the main money stupidities. Feel free to write in and laugh….har de har style.
However, hope springs eternal! On to 2014 and ten predictions for the year to come: Four metals market calls, four regional politics calls and two sporting calls but when push comes to shove, only number 10 on the list really matters.

1) Gold, at ~$1,200/oz today, is close to its bottom. I’m going to allow perhaps another $100 and make the 2014 low call $1,100/oz and the high $1,500/oz, which we’ll see as the year draws to a close. 

2) Quality junior mining companies and explorecos will finally split away from the cruddy juniors and we’ll see an all-important gap develop between the companies that need to die and those that will survive and eventually thrive. 

3) Copper will be weak in 2013, with supply outstripping demand and new lows of under $3/lb registered (put me down for $2.80/lb on multiple days, not just a single spike). Average for the year to be around $3.10/lb 

4) Uranium won’t break $40/lb at any point and the sector will continue to get the rah-rah from the promo people still holding their large bags. 

5) Dilma Rousseff, President of Brazil, will be re-elected in 2014. The election is set for October 5th and Dilma will win it, no matter whether her coutnry manages to lift the major trophy of next year or not (see below). Dilma is liked and likeable, gets the key backing of Lula and notwithstanding bumps in the road during her current terms (economy not motoring well, corruption scandals in her government) has done a more than acceptable job so far. She’ll get a second bite, no worries. 

6) Evo Morales, President of Bolivia, will be re-elected in 2014. The presidentials in Bolivia are currently slated for October 5th  2014 (that might move by a couple of weeks, or might not) and even though there are doubts as to whether Evo can run again (Supreme court says yes because the constitution is a new one, opposition says no it’s against the law because re-election is still not allowed) the chances are that he’ll be the MAS Party candidate and once there, win his next (first? other?) mandate. 

7) Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia, will be re-elected in 2014. We complete our trifecta of presidents to get second terms with Juanma. He’s currently favourite without being a lock for the May 25th 2014 vote, but as the FARC talks make slow but sure progress (contrary to my 2013 prediction) and the economy is doing ok (GDP growth modest but acceptable, unemployment now at record lows) he should have enough in the tank to defeat the main opposition that comes from the Uribe-backed right wing, whose anti-talks/anti-FARC-deal candidate looks set to be Oscar Zuluaga. 

8) Both Argentina and Venezuela will continue to defy and confound the non-stop barrage of criticism from the western media and get through 2014 just fine. Inflation in both countries will still be a problem, but there will be no defaulting of bonds, no forced changes of government no large-scale citizens uprising, no matter what dreams the country haters might have to the contrary. 

9) Juan Martin Del Potro will win at least one of the Grand Slam tournaments this year. Argentina’s ace tennis player is up against tough competition in Joker, Rafa, Murray and even a Roger who could put in a swan song, but I reckon it’s time for Delpo to make good on the promise of a few years ago and shake off time lost through niggling injuries. 

10) And finally, the big one: Brazil will win the 2014 World Cup. I’ll be cheering for Argentina, but my head will rule my heart on the predictive stakes (love to see them both in the final, though). Obvious dangers are (and in order) Germany, Spain, Italy and Holland. The rest make the show, not the semis or the final. 

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