IKN

Thy sin’s not accidental

That Peruvian economic miracle in numbers

Yes indeedy, a true miracle! Peru 2009 is the only country ever in the history of ever everness to have seen its electricity consumption drop and claim GDP growth. The red line shows monthly electricity demand in Peru, and especially for those tuning in from El Comercio, that broken line is what’s known in the trade as “a trend line“.

Hallelujah!
These jokers still claim a +0.34% GDP growth rate for Peru. Seriously, do they think we have pelotudo tattoed on our foreheads or something?

Of course, the BSsers in the Peru admin couldn’t even let this moment pass without trying to massage the numbers. Even though demand was down 2.95% YoY (Jul ’08 to July ’09) the press releases didn’t bother mentioning the important figure and decided to note only electricity production, which was down ‘just’ 2.4%. Hell, y’know you could produce double the amount you needed if you like*, the real pointy end of the statistics is how much is used and not how much is made. You can’t stockpile a gigawatt, y’see. You need to be the obsessive numberwonk type (errr…none of them round here…ahem cough cough) and get busy on the MEM website to find the true non-spin disaster area that is Peruvian electricity consumption in all its glory.

Economic miracle? Yeah right.

UPDATE: Reader ‘PV’ wrote and asked about the correlation between GDP and electricity demand, so check out this chart.


It’s not an exact correlation, but that mainly because monthly GDP data collection is not very accurate and in the case of Peru is affected by the number of working days compared to the same month of last year (e.g. where Easter falls will affect the monthly reading quite markedly). However, although not a perfect fit it’s still not bad; it’s clear that there’s a correlation between the two sets of figures. Hey, I bet you can’t wait for Peru’s July 2009 GDP number to be announced! That’ll be out mid-September and we’re bound to hear Spongebob and his “we’re at the bottom” baloney yet again.

*well you can’t, but you could churn out an extra 10% or so

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