IKN

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The difficulty of reading Mexico’s Presidential election from the poll numbers

The basic problem is that the pollsters aren’t reliable. This report from one of the best tracking sites out there, Mexico’s ADN Politico, shows (it has a nice graphic, so even if you’re lacking in Spanish language ability you’ll see the main info easily enough) that according to your taste:
  • Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) is either 8% ahead or 21.6% ahead or a couple of other numbers in between.
  • Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN) lies in second spot.
  • Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO to his friends and enemies alike (PRD), is in a clear second place so forget all that stuff about Josefina in second will you?

Overall, your humble scribe tends to see that if you’re a PRIista you get to read that your man Enrique (EPN) is walking this election by zeroing in on the polls run by PRI media sources for PRI-thinking people. Meanwhile, if AMLO is yer man, go read the PRD-loving sources and get heartened by the speed in which AMLO is closing the gap. Of the three main players, only Josefina’s star seems to be fading. At a guess, I’d say that EPN is leading fair and square but AMLO can’t be written off just yet and if Josefina’s support begins to seriously crumble, defectors are more likely to back AMLO than EPN (in fact, I’ve even seen a couple of “what if Josefina drops out and endorses AMLO?” articles appear in the last few days).
bottom line: The IKN call is that 1) EPN is still favourite for this race, 2) AMLO is in with a chance, 3) Josefina less so, 4) believe the biased media spin (in all directions) at your own peril. The next candidate’s live TV debate, scheduled June 10th, will be a key event.

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