children of an idle brain

The Origins of Technical Analysis (re-post)

Originally this IKN post dated 2009:

Most people believe that technical analysis is a fairly new discipline that sprung up in the 20th century. In fact
its roots can be traced back thousands of years, as the principles of TA
were developed by the early civilizations of South America.

In the Bolivian and Peruvian Altiplano highlands, the rainy season is very important. The rains have to come on time at the end of November, else
the potatoes planted end September or early October don’t germinate
properly and the harvest (around March) won’t be good. This is
important today but hundreds of years ago it was vital, as a totally
failed crop would mean region-wide hunger. So if the rains are late,
people begin to get worried.

Those locals then consult
the village shamans, typically known as ‘Yatiri’. If the Yatiris decide
that a ceremony is in order to bring on the rains they go out looking
for a frog or two. Once they find their frog they will poke, prod and
pour liberal quantities of water over the poor animal until it starts to
croak loudly.

Why? Because over time people noted that
frogs would all start croaking just before a heavy rainstorm. So
naturally if you find a frog and make it croak it will induce rainfall,
as the Andean cosmovision makes it clear that all things are
interconnected and one action is directly and inextricably linked to

  • The rainstorm is the stock market.
  • The frog is a chart.
  • The yatiri is the technical analyst.

UPDATE: A regular round these parts, reader SP mails in and adds to the mythology with..

“I guess cargo plane cults exist at every level of civilization”

 Indeed. Nice little explanation of that right here.

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