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The Peru GDP sweepstakes

We get Peru’s GDP reading for August published today by the nice stats people at the INEI. Here’s how the country has been faring since 2008….


…and my oh my, can’t you see the strength, the resilience, the way that “Peru is armour-plated against the financial crisis” (Twobreakfasts dixit)? Today’s consensus is for another drop, by the way. The average is for -0.5% with the recent scales-from-eyes people at Morgan Stanley punting for -1.1%. If you ask me I’d pitch around -1% as well, but in the end a monthly snapshot of GDP reading isn’t a reliable number and can vary like crazy one way or the end. It’s the trend that’s your friend and that trend is easy to spot in the above chart. So rather than run a sweepstakes on the actual number, today’s big question is:

“How long before Spongebob is quoted by the media channels as saying “This time we really have touched bottom and the only way is up. Really. Honest, guv. not kidding this time.”?

Your choices:

  • one hour after GDP number is published
  • one day after GDP number is published
  • he announces his resignation instead
  • i like pie
UPDATE: The numbers are out and according to the INEI, Peru’s GDP grew by 0.25%!! We’re supposed to take them seriously, too. The amazing country called Peru, where exports, imports, tax collection and manufacturing can all drop by large amounts and the GDP still goes up. Welcome to Argentina.

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