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The US Dollar: Some smarts from Trend&Value

After musing on the USD for a couple of weeks in the intro section of The IKN Weekly, your humble correspondent came to the definitive conclusion that he doesn’t have a freakin’ clue about the technical analysis aspects of the greenback right now.

But fortunately, help is at hand! Somebody much smarter in the ways of the chart is Lucas over at Trend&Value and on reading my laments he sent me a chart and a comment or two this morning that I thought was pretty intelligent. I’ve been given permission to reproduce here, so let’s hand it over to Lucas.

Just read your last weekly.

Regarding the Dollar, it seems to me that we have all been regarding particular price levels as overly important in terms of key supports (and I have been more guilty as most in this). It has been my contention that the last couple years will be looked back upon as a major bottom for the Dollar. Time will tell. But, if you look back to major historical turns in the currency markets, you find that the bottoming process takes a good deal of time, and back and forth trading, before a truly directional trend develops.
As for the recent action, the continued slippage has been a frustration, to be sure, but the daily chart of UUP (attached) shows a potentially very bullish ‘declining wedge’ formation. Additionally several of the technical indicators are looking rather positive. (RSI divergence on the top panel, CMF divergence on the first bottom panel — this indicates accumulation).
A retest of 72 on the index is not out of the question, but my feeling is that the next major surprise will be to the upside.

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