Take physic, pomp

Trading Post (flushing toilet edition)

I dunno ’bout your screen, but there’s a whole lot of red on my screen.

There are two ways of being conscious we’re in a bear market; either remind yourself every day, whether the stocks go up or go down, and take your profits whenever you can, or feel a lot poorer on a day like today and say to yourself “dash and botheration, i shudda taken profits“.

TRY.to down 4.7% at $0.81. I filled up all i wanted to fill yesterday and have my position all set now. Sure enough the stock dumps some more the day after. So be it. Now we wait. The main catalyst (apart from the 2q09 and 3q09 reports) should be the news that Troy has reached its main underground vein and has reached commercial production levels.This is expected February or March.

Jaguar Mining (JAG) down 4% at U$4.12. I was swapping mails with smart people yesterday about possible M&A action in the pipeline. IMHO, this is at the very top of the list of buyout candidates in the LatAm region and for one simple reason; why buy a greenfield and spend hundreds of millions on development when you can buy JAG and get two profitable working mines and a third that needs a few million spent on it to get it efficient? JAG also benefits from comparatively low political risk factors. It’s at $4, but would be cheap at $8 in an active merger situation. I don’t own (yet) but i have in the past. DYODD dude.

MAG silver (MVG) (MAG.to) down 2.7% in US trading at U$4.90. I read a Motley Fool article that talked about how the Fresnillo U$4.54 deal was now dead because of the recent price spike, but I think the author (who is long MVG) is a dumbass. Firstly, volume traded has been a fraction of the 49m shares out. Secondly, Fresnillo already owns 19.8% of MVG and another suitor is very unlikely (consider the geography and history and the mere fact the buyer would have to JV with a rather miffed Fresnillo on the project). Thirdly, in the current climate FRES.L won’t be in a hurry to expand operations and can wait MVG and its shareholders out while MVG burns its cash and withers on the vine. Fourthly, why should FRES.L pay any more for the mine? It’s the only possible buyer of the property in a buyer’s market. If I held MVG I’d sell at this premium now and move on.

Dynasty Metals (DMM.to) down 5% at $3.70. I am not happy that I sold well (if that makes any sense). A TA appreciating e-mail pal yesterday mentioned in passing that the stock would probably fill the gap back to $3.50 before moving forward. Y’see, there they go again talking about these silly “gaps”. On the other hand, if it does retrace to where it was pre-mining law passage I’ll buy back the chunk sold, no doubts. Right now just watching and waiting and still plenty long.

Rusoro (RML.v) up 1.7% at $0.61. There’s no way round the fact that its 4q08 operational results contained in this pre-earnings update are good reading. With a cash cost of $358/oz the company is doing well.

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