IKN

Win us with honest trifles

Tweetie asks on M&A and gets five (six?) ideas

Long-term IKN reader Tweetie put this comment under last night’s quick post on the Newcrest/Pretium deal:

Can you give us a list of what’s left to buy for Newmont and Barrick?
Must be a short list.
Great Bear? Kinross? Evolution?

Good question, so here are my ideas plus a couple of others stolen from two mailpals last night. As the overriding factor in the current wave of M&A is jurisdiction, we avoid LatAm/Africa picks in this shortlist and think Tier1 targets only. The following doesn’t preclude buyouts of juniors in other places, so don’t jump down my throat about a whole bunch of single asset companies with large gold projects in riskier zones:

  • Great Bear: Barrick has telegraphed this one, picking GBR as a M&A target now is almost too easy. I doubt it’ll be the next to fall, but the eventual sale is facepalm obvious.
  • Ascot Resources: A smart mailpal mentioned this one last night, I agree.
  • Argonaut Gold: I’m long this one, AR has quietly pivoted its asset base away from Mexico and to North America, plus growth project Magino is the real deal.
  • OceanaGold: Woefully managed until recently, OGC might suit BTG more than Barrick or Newmont due to Didipio, but there’s a lot of asset value to add now and a major might consider Haile as its turnaround play.
  • Wesdome: More speculative, WDO isn’t cheap on a per oz basis but its address(es) cannot be beaten.

Aside those five names, the house left-field idea is Barrick buying the 40% of Pueblo Viejo that it doesn’t own from NEM. I can’t see Kinross being bought and I’ve got no opinion on Evolution. That’s my shortlist, anyone else got ideas?

22 Comments

    Single asset producers left to buy for Newcrest? Superior Gold. Magna Gold. Abcourt mines.

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    Torex?

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      Maybe a female CEO can use her feminine wiles to engage a suitor, despite Guerrero.

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        In the same way i wouldn’t volunteer to have my kneecaps drilled, majors won’t voluntarily enter Guerrero.

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          Maybe her charms will have such high potency that you don’t feel any vibration in your knees until you realize you are now 125cm tall, you know, by the change in perspective. She is the CEO, after all.

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    Novagold, Victoria & MAG?

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    Marathon MOZ/TSX. Got the resources and a great location where you don’t have to kill the villagers.

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    I’m a long term holder of K92 Resources. It continues to grow it’s gold reserves and production. Only knock against it is that it’s in PNG.

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    Sabina is a good target but whoever buys it will have to beat Sean Boyd and AEM (KL) off with a pointed stick.

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    Newcrest has a focus on northwestern British Columbia. They have a lot on their plate but also take a long-term view. I’ll hold my nose a suggest Seabridge Gold.

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    Mandalay… they have the next Fosterville at Costerfield

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      So I own a decent stake in Mandalay and I think this is a possibility – but Lord God-Almighty, if they own the next Fosterville, they’d better get some drill hits that are wider than a couple of meters . . . too much of their stuff is super-high grade over 20 cm.

      But even without that, MND is undervalued, based on their cash flow and derisking — get Costerfield’s mine life up, and they’re going to be sitting pretty.

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    IAMGold.

    Mkt cap ~1.2B
    EV ~ 1.7B
    Cash on hand ~900MM
    Left owed on Cote ~ 900MM

    Sell the South American and West African mines for ~850-100B…$50/oz for P+P reserves and M+I resource – reasonable.

    Get 70% Cote for less than construction costs.

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      Who would be the suitor for Essakane? It has decent mine life remaining, and robust production – it’s mostly what’s keeping IMG afloat. Jurisdiction is very troublesome. B2 Gold just left the area, and the buyer of those assets (West Africa Resources) doesn’t look like someone who could afford Essakane now.

      I agree with the premise – it has long seemed like Iamgold could be split up beneficially. I feel like they’re stuck with this property however due to the risks.

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    If I was Agnico, I wouldn’t stop at Kirkland; I’d go after the Windfall deposit of Osisko Mining, sweeten the offer with a NSR. Osisko Royalties shouldn’t be building mines.

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    Don’t forget about Amex Exploration similiar grades and widths to Great Bear but at a more reasonable market cap. and in the friendly mining province of Quebec

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    Integra Resources & Liberty gold. Montage gold perhaps.

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    Firesteveletwin dot com for Cote

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    DB Ulaanbaatar 11/11/21 10:20 am

    I second Sabina.

    Reply

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