Take physic, pomp

Updating the Philippino* pair trade

Late Tuesday just before the close, this humble corner of cyberspace floated the idea of running a long BTO/short OGC pair trade, what with the bucket of cold water that had been dumped on their collective heads by the mining ministry in the Philippines. 
  • At the time of publication, BTO was trading at CAD$3.38. Here and now, 90 minutes after the open on Friday, it’s now CAD$3.51. 3.8% up.
  • At the time of publication, OGC was trading at CAD$4.07. Here and now, 90 minutes after the open on Friday, it’s now CAD$4.01. 1.5% down.
So a little over 5% up on that theoretical pair trade already. Hardly a cojones-busting king’s ransom, but the right side of the trade already and I think there’s more to come even if both companies receive the same final decision from the whackjobs now running the islands. And whackjob is not used lightly either, this new President is now comparing himself to Germany’s leader in the 30’s and 40’s and wants to kill 3m or so of his fellow citizens.
President Rodrigo Duterte appeared to liken himself to Nazi leader Adolf
Hitler on Friday and said he would “be happy” to exterminate three
million drug users and peddlers in the country. continues here
Bless him. The fate of OGC and BTO operations is in the hands of a lunatic, basically. OGC’s position looks shakier, but under normal circumstances I’d be supremely confident that BTO’s issues would be resolved simply. But hey, I bet the trains start running on time.

*Sorry if the spelling annoys you, reader W and others.

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